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OVERVIEW From La NIna like conditions in the Pacific Ocean to El Nino conditions next Winter? The IOD negative this year, positive in Spring 2026? The fluctuations continue in the climate drivers, but how does this impact the weather pattern for the next 12 months. YEARLY OUTLOOK VIDEO - ISSUED WEDNESDAY 3RD DECEMBER 2025 RAINFALL GUIDE Refer to the seasonal and weather videos for more context behind the next 12 months. TEMPERATURE GUIDE Refer to the seasonal and weather

The start of Summer is quieter with a drier airmass and warmer airmass building through the next 2 weeks as we see a response to what was a very busy November. This happens and is quite normal. The SAM looks to be neutral for the first half of December and could persist through the end of the year, there does appear to be further mobility in the southern ocean westerly wind belt and this looks to still have some impact on the southern states leading to drier air coming throu

So it turns out that I have worked every day for the past 5 years, and through all public holidays and my wedding this year and I was wondering why I have been feeling so tired of late.... it is that time of year! That has taken its toll and I am needing a break over the Christmas period this year and to ensure that I can be with family (some illness has taken hold with my parents and so this could be a very important Christmas period for me and my family) I will still be ar

OVERVIEW The forecast guide this week has been relatively good quality at the blog and via video and the guide has not changed a great deal this weekend and moving into next week. Showers and storms are ,lifting north along a cooler southerly change about the southeast states that is expected to shift north over the coming 24hrs. Severe storms may develop over NE NSW and SE QLD during Sunday afternoon with the chance of moderate rainfall for some areas. The western areas of

NATIONAL THUNDERSTORM FORECAST Thunderstorm Forecast Monday Thunderstorms are forecast to move through the interior and to the east with the chance of gusty winds but severe weather is not expected. Thunderstorm Forecast Tuesday Thunderstorms retreat back to the northern tropics again, with no severe weather expected at this time. Drier airmass elsewhere. Thunderstorm Forecast Wednesday Thunderstorms are forecast to remain restricted to the northern areas of the nation thoug

I will have more on this during Sunday afternoon but just a watch zone for potentially moderate severe weather issues with heavy rainfall, damaging winds and large hail risks from mid week. Rainfall totals are all over the shop depending on which model you would like to use. Other models show different outcomes, but they all agree, somewhere through central and eastern areas of NSW a moderate to high chance of meaningful rainfall. Worth watching for those planting and harvest

I have spoken about the significant risk to La Nina early in the season of Summer as a result of the lack of cooler upwelling and the stronger burst of the MJO moving through the Pacific, this being stuck in phase 7-8, it is already eroding the cooler waters through the Pacific. Back in October and even early November, there were many out there saying a wet Summer was on the way with floods. Now the dial is being tweaked the other direction, leading to many now forecasting a

I know that for many of you it is busy, so I will repeat the key points of interest for the nation looking at the weather for the back of December and into January. So once again, a quick note! MJO MOVING SLOWLY EAST INTO THE WESTERN PACIFIC - HEADING TO AFRICA BY EARLY DECEMBER The MJO moves out of phase for the next 2-3 weeks and will not make an approach at this time until Christmas week, more likely having influence from the first two weeks of 2026. This may render Decem