STATE OF PLAY - ISSUED TUESDAY 13TH OCTOBER 2026 The weather pattern remains unsettled over the east today with significant areas of moisture and thundery weather riding along a trough passing northeast over NSW and extending into QLD and extending back northwest to the NT. The wet weather is expected to be moderate along and to the east of the ranges across NSW contracting north from Sydney later. The showers and storms for QLD could be gusty and heavy with the chance of some hail but...

This is the evening run of internal data and I have updated the confidence wheels and the notes and rainfall totals with the analysis. These are raw data feeds and help to fashion my forecasts for rainfall which comes at 12 and 3pm daily. This is going behind the fourth wall and I think in times like this it is useful. The bottom line on each of the graphic is your friend and my take away for each model and the confidence wheel will help you understand where my weight is being assigned by...

A new era of the weather graphics continues with the longer range glow up as well. The El NIno continues to operate in the background, but the wet weather spread persists thanks to the upper level cold pools contiuing to show up and disrupting the weather pattern tending drier. I believe that the main reason is still the very warm waters west and southwest of the country and also off the eastern seaboard south from QLD where temperatures are 2-4C above normal. Every degree above normal adds...