STATE OF PLAY - ISSUED MONDAY 11TH MAY 2026 A region of instability moving over SA is interacting with moisture and triggers scattered showers and the chance of thunder over far northern Australia which will lead to falls throughout outback Australia. The wet weather along the eastern areas of NSW expected to bring light falls today with the winds kicking more southeasterly. Drier and brighter weather developing for southern SA and VIC with the winds tending more offshore and a warmer...

The comparison to 1997 continues to stand out in terms of all the warmer water that sits beneath the surface of the Pacific Ocean. You can see the 2026 at the top and 1997 on the bottom of the page. The warmth was somewhat broader in 1997, showing you how expansive the warmth was in that event. How much of the warmth that reaches the surface may exceed what was seen in 1997 and 1982. But how the atmosphere responds to that remains uncertain. That remains the question unanswered. I will...

OVERVIEW The modelling now settling into a period of downgrading the amplification of the weather pattern as we move through the medium range which is line with the greater long term weather narrative that as we move into the back of Autumn and into Winter, the dry spells become lengthier and the rainfall events lessen by 20-30% compared to modelling due to models playing catch up to the climate setting. If you miss rainfall, you then feel the impacts of the drought developing faster in your...