VIC - WIDESPREAD CLOUD OVER THE STATE BUT RAINFALL IS DECREASING. MAY RETURN EAST ON MONDAY.

OVERVIEW

Drier weather is developing from tonight as an upper low begins to move northwards into NSW with skies remaining cloudy in the south and partly cloudy over northern areas. The risk of frost is negligible given the cloud and higher humidity and that will result in mild days with rainfall confined to the Far East where onshore winds will feature.


Dry weather for most of you this weekend, maybe some light drizzle for the south Saturday and Sunday but in the east and far northeast, we could see some of that rainfall spill over from the east with light falls for the most part, tending heavier in the Far East of Gippsland.


Rain and showers will clear through the week over Gippsland before we see a high return mid week. But the drier weather will end for the west later next week.


SHORT TERM

A series of troughs rotating around an upper low over the eastern inland will keep the wet weather and severe weather potential over QLD and NSW with some of it clipping the east and northeast but the severe weather not coming into the state just yet. Further west, the weather is fine and dry, cloudy about the coast with some drizzle but that is about it.


From Tuesday, a high should begin to ridge in from the west and knock the low and trough out of the east and drier weather will continue.


A weakening cold front will approach from Wednesday with some patchy rain and strong northwest winds lifting temperatures. Not much rain with the frontal weather, but a series of strong cold fronts will approach from the west during later next week and into the weekend with more widespread rainfall possible but will have more clarity on that once we know when the blocking easterly clears offshore the east coast.


LONG TERM

The east coast block is expected to move out by later next week and frontal weather which should be glancing through the southwest of the nation. That frontal weather will begin to track eastwards through the end of next week with stronger systems launching through WA then these look more likely to come across Southern Australia with more intensity as we track into the second week of July.


So once we lose the extensive rainfall over the north and east of the country, the weather is expected to return to more traditional conditions. Whether it can overcome the rainfall deficits over southern and Western Australia will be the question but right now it is unlikely.


AREAS TO WATCH

The SAM phase is important to watch over the coming week, if we see it head back into a negative phase then the frontal weather coming through in the second week of July could be very productive given the location of the wave action over the Southern Ocean.


The Indian Ocean is forecast to remain warmer than normal and this will feed moisture into the jet stream, whether it does it with the next wave of active frontal periods in the first part of July will be the issue, but most climate models support above average rainfall for July.


WEATHER VIDEO PM - THURSDAY 30TH JUNE 2022

FORECAST

Rainfall Next 10 Days

Rainfall is likely to be mainly light and drizzly tonight and will lift into NSW with a mostly dry Friday on the way. In Gippsland, the further east you go, the wetter you will be over the weekend with moderate to possibly heavy falls east of Point Hicks in relation to the trough and low hovering offshore NSW. Some rainfall may also be dawn into northeast VIC with snowfalls above 1200m with a band of rain nudging in from the north and east during the weekend, but location of the upper low will determine how much actually falls in the gauge in this region and how far west it comes which is always fun with upper level systems. Otherwise the west and southwest is dry until we see cold fronts return to the forecast from mid next week with stronger fronts to follow into next weekend with the chance of rainfall coming up for areas that have been dry for a little while.

That heavier rainfall spread over the east is close but it is expected to stay in NSW for now, but will keep watching the trends, but models have lifted it northwards in the past 24hrs.

Out west, will have to wait for the frontal weather to return bringing the wet weather back, but at this time, nothing groundbreaking in terms of major rainfall events are expected during the coming 10 days.

MEDIUM TERM

July 8th - July 15th, 2022

Rainfall Anomalies

Relatively seasonal conditions forecast across most of the nation, though there are some increasing signals on the modelling, some quite aggressive, for rainfall being above average over the southeast and south of the country and possibly about the southwest. I would like to see more modelling on board for the higher rainfall chances to be extended into SA and NSW but right now I am not convinced of it.

Temperature Anomalies

There has been a shift towards a cooler bias across the nation in recent days and while I am seeing that colder bias, I am not confident on it being as cold as models suggest so keeping things milder over the east and southeast, cooler over the north and northwest and across western parts of the nation.

DATA - Refer to the video for further information.


00Z GFS - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 2 Weeks

As mentioned, there is so much going on in this active pattern and to cut down reading time, refer to the video at the top of the page.

00Z GFS - Precipitable Water Values - Next 2 Weeks

Moisture levels remain excessive along the east coast with some very heavy rainfall totals to develop for this time of year in response to that. The deeper moisture moving out of the NT, through QLD and into NSW and then remaining along the east coast, which is representative of the positive SAM phase. Overall, the pattern will breakdown mid next week, meaning that conditions along the west coast and through southern Australia will remain dry and settled under high pressure. Moisture will overcome the drier airmass over in the west by the end of next week, that moisture then spreading along the southern coastal areas bringing up the chances of rainfall for southern Australia once again and drier air moving back over the eastern and northern parts of the nation.

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to the video for more context and analysis

00Z CMC - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to the video for more context and analysis

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 2 Weeks

Refer to the video for more context and analysis

A closer look in - rainfall flirts with the north and east through the weekend and then we see the whole easterly wind bias clear off by mid next week, that may still clip the far east with a low forming early next week offshore. Then frontal weather returns to the coast with strong and gusty winds developing in a traditional weather pattern from later next week and beyond for southern areas of the nation.

More coming up from 8pm EST with a look at the models and rainfall.

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