VIC - SHOWERS THIS EVENING CLEARING LATER THURSDAY THEN RAIN IN EAST SUNDAY WITH A LOW.

OVERVIEW

Showers moving through with an upper low is expected to bring mainly light falls and cloudy skies and a colder airmass. The weather is expected to shift northwards during Thursday with the upper low moving into NSW.


That sets up a clearer spell for much of the southeast ahead of the low pressure developing off the east coast which could send showers down the NSW coast and into East Gippsland this weekend and into early next week. Position of the upper level systems key for that to occur.


Elsewhere, conditions are forecast to be dry with the ridge nearby. But frontal weather may offer some hope for at-least light falls later next week.


SHORT TERM

The wet weather over northern and eastern Australia is expected to reflect the positive SAM phase which is launching the moisture back into the eastern inland via the onshore easterly winds. The component we need for rainfall is the upper level trough and widespread rainfall is forecast to continue under this arrangement, which we have seen produce the flood issues earlier this year.


So this pattern is familiar. For our state, that means drier weather, with easterly winds until a low approaches the southeast of the state producing widespread falls nearby the NSW/VIC border. Watching the trends closely, but it could even sneak into northern areas of the state as well.


The weather clears during the early part of next week with the showers decreasing in the east. Another high moves over this time next week, but the pattern flips, a frontal boundary moves into the southeast of the nation mid next week and that opens the door for further frontal weather into the weekend and beyond at this time.


LONG TERM

The frontal weather should resume over Southern Australia from next week, with the heavier impacts being felt over SWLD of WA through the back half of next week, with moderate rainfall possible with that feature, bringing an end to the dry spell for most areas.


The rainfall is expected to be widespread across the west of the nation until we see that spread further east to impact southern areas of SA and then into the southeast inland across VIC and maybe southern NSW. Moisture dependent, the rain bands may increase in coverage in future modelling so will be watching the Indian Ocean closely.


Otherwise the rest of the north and east of the nation is expected to clear with drier air surging northwards with high pressure coming in from the west.


AREAS TO WATCH

The focus of the weather shifts to the west of the nation next week, how much moisture can be drawn into the jet stream and will this bring back the wet weather back into the southern and southeastern parts of the nation breaking the drier spell of the recent week or two.


WEATHER VIDEO PM - WEDNESDAY 29TH JUNE 2022

FORECAST

Rainfall Next 10 Days

Light falls tonight with scattered showers with an upper trough is expected to continue with the upper trough slowly moving northwards into NSW. Showers decreasing later tomorrow and then mainly dry Friday and Saturday. Another trough in the east will approach Gippsland and this may start to produce showers in the Far East with the chance of moderate falls. If a low develops along the trough, then widespread showers will tend to rain and that rainfall could be heavier the further east of Orbost you are. There may also be showers developing over the far north with the moisture spilling over from the Riverina, once again location of the upper level system the issue with regards to rainfall spread at the moment so keep watch. Everything is out of here by early next week, then we have strong cold fronts impacting the west which may bring the next chance of more traditional rainfall back to the west and southwest of the state which should be dry post the showers overnight and Thursday into mid next week.

A broader look at the region shows the rainfall bias connected to the easterly wind regime and the risk of a trough being caught in these easterly winds with heavy falls developing in response to this. That rainfall may nose into northeast and eastern VIC and drier weather back to the west.

Watching this area of heavy rainfall which may begin to sweep into East Gippsland in future updates so be aware that the severe weather risks are not too far away through the weekend and into early next week.

DATA - Refer to the video for further context and support for the short and medium term.


00Z GFS - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 2 Weeks

Refer to the video for further context. There is a lot of complexity and that is causing a lot of shifting around in the rainfall totals from run to run in the east. Find out more about what you may expect in the video at the top of the page. The overall trend for the west is quiet before the pattern flips next week.

00Z GFS - Precipitable Water Values - Next 2 Weeks

Moisture is largely unchanged from overnight and this morning, the deep moisture profile over the north and east will be full realised beyond the thick high cloud that has been covering large areas of the nation today, with a middle and lower-level deck of cloud likely to develop from tomorrow as a stronger forcing mechanism in the upper low meets the moisture, and then the ingredients combine to produce heavy rainfall potential for the east. The moisture will take a while to sweep out to the east but once it does, we will see the moisture return over western areas of the nation, chiefly in the south with frontal weather helping to bring back rainfall and more typical weather for this time of year after a dry spell. That moisture will reach the south and southeast later next week into the following weekend with follow up fronts to come over the south and west.

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to the video for more context and analysis

00Z CMC - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to the video for more context and analysis

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 2 Weeks

Refer to the video for more context and analysis

A closer look in - widespread rainfall is expected to form along the coast with torrential falls. The heavier rainfall will move around from run to run depending on what model you are using and this will be the case until tomorrow night. Stay close to the forecasts and advice moving forward. The rainfall eases next week over NSW but returns to the south and southeast from later next week into the weekend with frontal weather returning.

More coming up from 8pm EST with a look at the models and rainfall and there is lots to discuss.




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