TUESDAY MORNING WEATHER - THE CLOUD IS BUILDING, RAIN DEVELOPS TODAY OVER NT. DRY MOST ELSEWHERE.

OVERIEW

The cloud band continues to thicken over northern Australia and light rainfall from overnight Monday is ongoing into today with a cold day for northern areas of the nation today, some areas will struggle to get above 25C in the tropics and that is cold for this part of the world.


Most elsewhere, it is dry and stable with high pressure at the helm. But that high will have a tough time holding onto control in the east as we have an upper-level system developing over the north and northwest moving into the eastern inland and an upper-level low forming over the southern and southeast of the country, this too moving northeast into the southeast and eastern inland.


This sets up a divide across the country with the west drier and mild with easterly winds for the most part and the southeast also seeing mostly dry weather as well ahead of the front mid week. In the north and east, wet and thundery with moderate to heavy rainfall possible throughout the period, peaking across the weekend before easing next week.


SHORT TERM

So the rainfall looks to come in two parts. One part is coming through with the upper trough over northern and northeastern areas of the nation from today and through Wednesday. As mentioned last week, the cloud cover won’t be matching the rainfall coverage initially, and so patchy falls are expected over the NT and northern and western QLD.


We will see a developing upper level trough moving through the Bight during mid week and this cuts off into an upper low over SA then into NSW on Thursday, interacting with the moisture over QLD, will see the rain band increasing in size and intensity over QLD and then spreading further east throughout the remainder of the week.


Rain may also develop over inland NSW and across the east coast mainly north of Sydney. Heavy falls are possible along the Hunter Coast and along the QLD/NSW border along and to the east of the divide as well as along the trough moving through QLD. Some areas in QLD could see a 1/25 year event for this time of year.


The west and southeast should remain mostly dry and dry and clear for much of southern and central Australia, but with the onshore flow, the cloud deck may persist about the southern coastal areas of SA.


Conditions should begin to ease over the east from this time next week but there could be another front approaching the southwest of the country, which may lead to rainfall coming back to western Ag Areas.


LONG TERM

Longer term shows the pattern shifting back to more typical weather for this time of year, but this is dependent on the SAM tending back neutral and then negative with frontal weather returning.


There is a lot of moisture sitting north and northwest of the country which could see cloud increasing once again with widespread rainfall emerging through the Indian Ocean and this may approach the west coast once again into the first week of July.


A lot of moisture may linger back over QLD and NSW if the easterly wind regime holds on. So there is still some uncertainty out there.


AREAS TO WATCH

Watching the Indian Ocean through the medium term as that could come back into play, bringing up rainfall for parts of the southwest and west of the country.


Also watching the east coast for severe weather risks in the short term with additional flooding developing.


WEATHER VIDEO AM - TUESDAY 27TH JUNE 2022

RAINFALL NEXT 10 DAYS

Rainfall is likely to become more widespread about the inland of the Top End and run down the Stuart Highway and areas to the east, through Katherine, the Barkly and into the Carpentaria. The rainfall may nose into western QLD tonight. Overall the rest of the nation is quiet under high pressure. A weakening upper low is forecast to move into SA from Wednesday afternoon through Thursday with a batch of showers, and while the rain band over the northern inland weakens for a period, moisture is still surging southwards into QLD and once the upper low moves into NSW from SA, this is where we see the rainfall increase in coverage over the northeast of the nation. That upper low over NSW is expected to remain slow moving while the upper trough over the NT will become absorbed into this system, creating a more robust feature, driving heavy rain and storms across the north and east of the nation. There is a severe weather risk for eastern QLD and along the NSW coast. In the meantime, the rest of the nation is quiet, with coastal showers and drizzle along the southern coastline but inland areas should be dry through next week. SWLD of WA may see showers increasing from early next week with the new front approaching from the southwest while the east should see rain ease to showers before clearing. The rainfall spread is starting to increase in confidence but it is not set in stone yet so keep watching.

Thunderstorm Forecast Tuesday

Thunderstorms are possible over a broad region of the NT and QLD, but the forecast confidence is low, and this will continue to shift as the guidance improves.

Thunderstorm Forecast Wednesday

Thunderstorms are still possible over a broad area of northern and northeastern Australia with a broad trough and deepening moisture but the coverage within this broad zone is uncertain and will likely shift in the coming days. If a strong cold front approaches the southeast of the nation, there is the chance of thunderstorms with the boundary as that moves through.

Thunderstorm Forecast Thursday

Thunderstorms will continue on and to the east of a trough over QLD and the eastern portions of the NT but the focus will be shifting into QLD primarily through the day.

Thunderstorm Forecast Friday

There is an ongoing risk of thunderstorms under a broad rain band not severe weather is likely and the cloud cover will mitigate that risk with the storms if they form, mainly elevated.

Thunderstorm Forecast Saturday

A broad upper low and deepening moisture profile could see thunderstorms develop along the east coast and the adjacent inland but conditions clearing from the western interior of QLD. Heavy rainfall with isolated thunderstorms is possible about the coastal areas.

WEATHER ISSUES

SEVERE WEATHER WATCH - QLD

A heads-up area for severe weather potential, from heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding being the main concern inland and riverine flooding in addition to the flash flood risk over the coastal areas from about the Capricornia to the NSW Border at this time!

SEVERE WEATHER WATCH - NSW

Will draw in a reference point for you all to keep watch of the forecasts. If you are in the yellow zone, make sure you check back daily and even if you are near the area drawn in but not included, the weather doesn't care about where I draw the line, still pay attention. This risk zone could be drawn further west or trimmed back further north into QLD. But for now, it would be wrong to not flag this as a risk developing for the region, really from the weekend into Monday. Flash flooding and riverine flooding the main issue and some locations on current modelling could see 300mm from the event. That will become clearer as we move through the week.

Frost Forecast Tuesday Morning should ease through next hour but it will be back tonight over a large area with further severe conditions possible ahead of warmer nights over northern areas of the warning graphic as tropical air heads south.

Severe Frost Risk Wednesday

These areas need to pay attention to frost tending severe during Tuesday and Wednesday morning with temperatures lowering to -5C in some areas over the SE of NSW and NE VIC and possibly over the Central and Northern Tablelands. Areas in blue could see temperatures for a period lower than -5C through the overnight periods.

MEDIUM TERM

July 5th - July 12th, 2022

Rainfall Anomalies

Rainfall anomalies are still leaning above normal in the east and northeast and seasonal elsewhere after a dry spell over southern and western Australia. Rainfall will return but not enough for southern areas to make up the deficit just yet, but that will come with time. No outrageous weather systems are forecast during this period but keep watching that moisture north and west of the nation. You can see where things are heading as we move into Spring.

Temperature Anomalies

Warmer bias in the east with left over humidity and easterly winds keeping temperatures up to 1C above normal overall. In the west and central areas and over northern Australia, the cooler bias continues under cloud and moisture circulating through the region and onshore winds over Southern Australia. Frontal weather returning to WA will also lead to cooler air being projected through the state.

CLIMATE DRIVERS - SOUTHERN ANNULAR MODE - AT THE TOP OF THE POSITIVE PEAK.

We should start to see the impacts of this later in the week and over the weekend with widespread rainfall over the east coast with above average rainfall. Drier weather expected over southern Australia with a lack of westerly winds for the next week.

DATA - Refer to video for more information and the model comparison and context about all the forecast products you see from me.


12Z Euro Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 10 Days

Refer to the video for further guidance and context behind all the data sets being spewed out by the models below.

12z Euro Precipitable Water Anomalies - Next 10 Days

Moisture is largely unchanged from last night's advice through the next 10 days with the bulk of the moisture producing the higher rainfall chances over northern and eastern Australia and may hug the east coast through next week with the positive SAM phase in place. Drier air back over southern and western parts of the nation with ridging.


12z Euro Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 days

Refer to video for more information

12z GFS Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 days

Refer to video for more information

12z CMC Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 days

Refer to video for more information

12z Euro Rainfall Accumulation - Next 15 days

Refer to video for more information

12z GFS Rainfall Accumulation - Next 16 days

Refer to video for more information

More coming up on the rain band potential, severe weather risks and the climate outlook for the next 6 weeks from 11am EST. State based forecasts tonight! Lots on!!