SATURDAY EVENING WEATHER - COLD IN SOUTHEAST WITH SHOWERS. DRY WEST. RAIN INCREASING FOR INTERIOR.

ANALYSIS

We are set to see showers developing over the southeast tonight and across the far northern tropics as well, but most elsewhere, it is settled and dry with a gusty northwest flow over the southeast lifting those temperatures above average again.


A colder shift is expected to surge north on Sunday and pushing the warmer air northwards and that could help to establish some cloudy skies for some of inland NSW and into QLD but no rainfall is expected at this time.


A cloud band is forecast to develop over the northern interior on your Sunday and while it will be overcast, not much rainfall is excepted at this time but could start to emerge from Monday over some parts of northern WA, NT and western QLD. Will have to watch trends.


SHORT TERM

Showers will redevelop over the southeast with a weakening cold front passing through the westerly wind belt with a strong northwest wind shifting colder southwesterly. The showery weather will not extend that far northwards with the pattern shifting offshore the east coast by Sunday morning.


The rest of the nation is quiet before we see the upper trough deepening over WA and this becoming slow moving through next week with moisture becoming deeper from the upper-level northwest winds that form in advance of the trough. There is some strengthening of the signals that the rainfall may be further northwards through QLD and the NT with a lesser chance now of the rainfall spreading southwards.


But in saying that, some of the models have been hinting at the idea of a cut off low developing over the southeast of the nation with increasing showery coverage due to this feature.


LONG TERM

The moisture is still forecast to meander around the north of the nation but may be held at bay and block by high pressure from entering southern and southeastern Australia.


That opens the door for further above average and possibly out of season rainfall and humidity for the NT and QLD.


Showers may also develop along the east coast in response to the developing easterly flow and that may combine with the trough approaching from the interior to see moderate rainfall emerge.


The west remains dry for a while for now, with a large-scale area of persistent high pressure.


AREAS TO WATCH

The SAM may turn positive, but it looks to turn back to being negative through the first week of July, with some member suggesting another robust period of westerly winds developing from the second week of July, so rainfall chances come up for the SWLD of WA and then extending east along the coast.


The moisture and upper-level disturbance over northern and northeast Australia may also spread further rainfall chances through that region.


The Indian Ocean Dipole in negative phase is still in progress and this is NORMAL for this time of year to have a quieter spell. It will return with force through late Winter into Spring!


FORECAST

Rainfall Next 10 Days

Showers developing tonight with mainly light falls across the southeast and southern coastal areas of SA into VIC and moderate rainfall for western TAS. The rest of the country is dry and settled. For Sunday, scattered showers and hail for parts of the southeast will continue but thin out through the day as the air is dry. There is likely to be an increase of cloud and showers over parts of northern Australia and the confidence zone as to where the rainfall is forecast to emerge remains to be seen but likely to unfold from tomorrow or into Monday and intensity throughout the week ahead. As we move into the southeast of the nation, drier weather for the first period of the week, but showers redevelop from Wednesday with the next front, but the moisture may be decoupled from this system and areas of widespread rainfall is expected to not be a feature through the region. That will remain reserved for QLD and NSW as we move into the latter part of the week and so will take a look at that in greater detail tomorrow in your state based forecasts but more heavily through next week. The west, not ignoring you, there is nothing of interest happening in the coming 10 days.

Thunderstorm Forecast Sunday

Nil Thunderstorms....for now! The upper trough approaching later in the weekend could kick off storms over SA and or QLD through the afternoon so keep watch.

Thunderstorm Forecast Monday

The development of a trough over the northern parts of the nation could start to see scattered showers and thunderstorms emerging later Monday into Tuesday.

Thunderstorm Forecast Tuesday

Thunderstorms are possible over a broad region of the NT and QLD, but the forecast confidence is low, and this will continue to shift as the guidance improves.

Thunderstorm Forecast Wednesday

Thunderstorms are still possible over a broad area of northern and northeastern Australia with a broad trough and deepening moisture but the coverage within this broad zone is uncertain and will likely shift in the coming days. If a strong cold front approaches the southeast of the nation, there is the chance of thunderstorms with the boundary as that moves through.

Thunderstorm Forecast Thursday

Thunderstorms will continue on and to the east of a trough over QLD and the eastern portions of the NT but the focus will be shifting into QLD primarily through the day.

MEDIUM TERM

July 2nd - July 9th, 2022

Rainfall Anomalies

The presence of the high to the south and west of the nation will help to produce easterly winds over the nation's east coast with showery weather along the coast and moisture surging inland, meeting inland troughs producing rainfall and thunder. Some moisture may be left over from the surge that is currently moving through the NT and QLD, this moisture may sit over central and eastern QLD for the first half of this period. Frontal weather returns to WA through the first week of July it appears and will traverse the country towards the 6th onwards.

Temperature Anomalies

Not a whole lot of change expected through the outlook but if we do see the easterly wind bias for a period, then temperatures and humidity will be above average in the east and cooler conditions nearer high pressure ridging through the Bight which will be cold cored. The north also warmer with strong easterly winds developing.

DATA - NOT A WHOLE LOT OF CHANGE TONIGHT BUT THE MODELS ARE STARTING TO TIGHTEN IN THE SPACE OF HIGHEST IMPACT. I WILL HAVE MORE TOMORROW. BUT YOU CAN COMPARE BELOW.


Euro Rainfall - Next 10 Days - Control Member

Euro Rainfall - Next 10 Days - Single Data Set

CMC Rainfall - Next 10 Days

GFS Rainfall - Next 10 Days

More coming up from Sunday morning, have a great Saturday night! I just got into the ACT delayed, so apologies for the shorter post this evening.