We covered this off in the medium term forecasting that is pinned to the top of the blog front page. Take a look at the various rainfall signals for SA there in the ensemble data sets.
Back to the short term, we have got a few settled days of weather, a chance to dry out in some wet areas to get things sorted outdoors.
A weak change may spoil that drier picture for the southeast during late Sunday into Monday with a weakness in the ridge coming through the southern states, allowing the cold front to pass over the southeast.
Light showers and drizzle will develop later Sunday through Monday over the southeast and south but dry weather and sunshine should continue for the inland with a risk of frost developing over the weekend and again next week under the ridge.
The weather warms up mid week ahead of the first in a series of troughs it seems tonight, in the latest data, that may bring scattered showers this time next week to parts of the EP, YP and Adelaide region with some chance of cloud increasing further north, but dry for now.
Then a stronger system will come through the Bight late Friday into next weekend with some widespread showers and storms developing for the southeast states.
Better confidence and guidance will come as we go through the weekend on that feature. So hopefully some more concrete forecasts can be had in the coming days.
Lets look at modelling
00Z GFS Surface Pressure Pattern for the coming 16 days
The pattern is settled for the coming 5 days despite the weak front passing through the southeast states. That will flush the humidity out of the eastern inland and take a trough offshore with it. The weather over the remainder of the inland from WA through SA into the eastern inland will remain dry and seasonal. The weather starts to turn unsettled at this stage on the latest data from Thursday over WA and SA with patchy rainfall and thunder possible as the inland turns warmer in a northwest flow. Then a stronger colder feature develops from WA later next week which could spark a large scale multi state rainfall event and possibly the first storm outbreak over QLD as that feature rolls through, so the shift is starting to appear on the GFS this evening. Now we watch the charts and data to see if there is consistency in the guidance in the coming days. The tropics also turning warmer and more humid over this period.
00z GFS Rainfall for the coming 16 days
Fairly dry over much of the inland for the coming 7 days with no rainfall expected. A few showers and drizzle for the coastal areas from later this weekend and next week before that clears. The next major rainfall event for the nation comes later next week into the following weekend. Otherwise a trough before that may bring some showers to southern SA and VIC mid next week, and showery weather for pockets of the east coast remains fair.
00z GFS Precipitable Water Anomalies next 16 days
The PW anomalies again shifting away from the drier trend from this morning, back wet, with the modelling now supporting multiple rainfall events for the nation from later next week. Some of that may turn heavy with a colder shift through SA and into the southeast states. Moderate rainfall also possible for WA from this time next week. Over QLD, moisture rolling onshore may bring up rainfall chances from later this weekend through next week, that moisture surging west and south through the eastern inland of the nation could link up with that front, with a large scale rainfall event developing next weekend for SA, VIC and NSW then into eastern QLD with storms possible. Another strong system can be seen in the outlook for the west with more moisture surging in from the Indian Ocean. Be interesting to see if that holds up tomorrow morning.
00z Euro Surface Pressure Pattern for the coming 10 days
The pattern unchanged from this morning, a settled spell for the nation is expected through next week with showers fairly coastal over the south and east of the nation for the most part but even there the rainfall light and patchy, FNQ is quite a lot wetter though under the influence of trade winds. The weather turns more dynamic at the end of the run, a little later than GFS but they are in agreement, next weekend is where we see the weather change. How far north that trough or low comes remains to be seen.
00z Euro Rainfall for the coming 10 days
The inland essentially dry for the coming 7 days or so for most of the nation, with coastal areas seeing the most of the precipitation. Next week the rainfall will return to the inland of WA first starting mid next week and the southeast may start to see more rainfall developing next weekend. There is a low chance of this moving into QLD at this time.
00z Euro Precipitable Water Values next 10 days
The Euro has reintroduced moisture this evening in the data sets, where this morning it was drier. So that flip flopping will continue, but the good signal is that it has come into agreement with most global models suggesting a change developing from the west later next week that spreads through the east. How much inland rainfall develops is not clear but there are all possibilities of widespread inland rainfall with the moisture increasing.
Rainfall for the next 10 days
A fairly quiet period coming up with the weather dominated by high pressure. The modelling suggesting a warmer trend this weekend, but a weakness in the ridge may introduce light showers for the south coastal areas. The next chance of rain could come as early as this time next week for coastal areas with more widespread rainfall next weekend with moderate falls. But that will become clearer as we get closer.
Climate Update tomorrow and a look a the severe weather season once again. Also even though its up north, the tropical weather season is expected to play a huge part and so I will have a look at the Wet Season for 2021/22 as well.