There is a lot of moisture and unsettled weather that has been skirting north and east of the state over recent weeks and this week, looks no different with ridging to the south and dry air leading to more of the same, hot inland and milder near the coast, with southeast to northeast winds.
However, mid week there is the chance of an upper trough tapping into some moisture passing in via those easterly winds over the eastern districts, giving rise to scattered showers and thunderstorms moving into these areas. Thunderstorms not severe, but it would be some of the first rains in about month for many areas of SA.
The western areas and through the EP likely to remain dry for now, with hot weather further away from the coast, but the coastal areas will be spared the worst of the heat with a southeast to northeast flow remaining in place.
A new high ridging in from the west is expected to bring a southwest to southerly change later in the week into the weekend with the dry weather continuing.
Have to watch the medium term closely with the moisture from the tropics starting to sweep southwards as the monsoon and tropical lows start to get their act together for northern Australia.
Lets take a look
Rainfall Next 10 Days
Rainfall is expected to remain very much a luxury across SA with the dry airmass and stable air over the region suppressing any rainfall chances for the short term. There is a moderate chance that a new trough mid to late week could squeeze out a few showers and thunderstorms over the southeast and eastern districts from Thursday and Friday with moisture creeping in from the west. But the rainfall is expected to be patchy at best so do not expect anything to major. The next opportunity for rainfall over the state will likely come via the troughs over inland Australia and the tropical low moving over the northern inland of the nation, and where that low goes, so will a lot of moisture and rainfall, low chance of that impacting us here, but the chance is not 0!
DATA - All the analysis you want is in the video.
00Z GFS - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 16 Days
More details in the video relating to this with the daily breakdown - but note the moisture content remains very high with the high pressure sitting further south leading to easterly winds dominating this period. Also note the tropical moisture being pulled further south as we go along which is very plausible.
00Z GFS - Precipitable Water Values - Next 16 Days
Deep moisture rotating around the nation but covering much of the north and east for the entire period, but there seems to be this idea of the pattern flipping in around a week and the moisture being shared around for the second half of January which has been the advice all along.
00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 16 Days
More details in the video
A closer look in - it may be dry for interior parts, but watch the tropical system and eastern areas, watch out for the trough later this week, could produce storms for far eastern areas.
More details coming up on Monday morning. Have a great evening.