A deep low pressure system is winding up south of the state today and is expected gain forward momentum as it tracks north and approaches the coast later tonight between Ceduna and Elliston.

The most severe weather is likely near and north/west of the circulation, that is where you will find the most damaging winds, some wind gusts could get close to 110km/h. Also the risk of isolated tornados and waterspouts near centre of circulation.

For the remainder for the EP, windy with periods of rain with moderate falls the further west you are. The low is expected to pass through the Eastern EP and the remnant circulation will move over the Flinders and Mid North with areas of squally rain.

Squally winds with showery periods, local hail and thunder is expected to sweep over the SE Districts including Adelaide and points towards the Flinders and Mid North again in the southerly flow.

Satellite Imagery

The impressive swirl of a low pressure system is a feature that never gets old to me on the charts. This current deepening low presenting beautifully this morning as it moves steadily north towards the EP. Areas of squally rain likely to develop later today and persist overnight into Thursday as this low moves inland. Ahead of it, a band of showers with a rumble or two is now moving over the border of VIC and NSW. Speckled cloud in between that low and the trough is producing scattered showers and thunder today with small hail.

Forecast wind guide for the coming 24hrs. Some robust numbers getting inland as well which will lift a lot of dust.

State of Play Wednesday

Strong winds and heavy showers are on the approach to the EP and West Coast this afternoon. Already, a scattering of showers already present this morning, some of these will grow in height and there is the chance of thunderstorms forming within this zone and progress east as a the low nudges things along. A trough has passed through with a band of light rain of 1-5mm this morning. The trough will activate moisture and showers and storms will increase this afternoon over VIC and NSW. The main weather comes later this afternoon with the low moving onto land between Elliston and Ceduna. Widespread showers and gales expected with squalls over 110km/h not impossible. These gales will extend inland tonight with the risk spreading to the Flinders and Mid North tomorrow but winds of up to 90km/h possible. A colder surge will see grazing conditions for stock become hazardous on Thursday.

Simulated Radar - 930pm CST

The low approaching with a band of rain and storms passing through with squally winds over the EP and West Coast. This band will approach KI and the YP this evening.

Simulated Radar - 1230am Thursday CST

Low pressure starting to move onshore with a gusty band of rain, severe gales likely to approach during the early hours of the morning for the West Coast. The rain reaching Adelaide with a possible storm.

Simulated Radar - 330am Thursday CST

Areas of rain and squally winds over the EP, spreading through the YP, Flinders and Mid North with moderate falls.

Damaging Winds Risk Wednesday into Thursday

Certainly the risk has lifted a little further north and west with the low coming onshore. Winds are expected to be near 110km/h around the circulation and gusts to 90km/h with showers and thunderstorms further east and north of the feature.

There will be scattered showers and thunderstorms are you can refer to the broader severe weather outlook for those details. The main concern for SA is the wind issues out along the West Coast and surrounds.

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