SA - SLOW CLEARANCE FOR THE SOUTH BUT DRY FOR THE NORTH. RAIN RETURNS LATER NEXT WEEK.

ANALYSIS

High pressure is now starting to move through the state with a drier airmass expected to lead to clear days over the interior with some chance of drier and more seasonal temperatures developing as the flow tends into the east and northeast.


The cold and cloudy weather is expected to continue for southern areas for at least the next 4 days with the onshore flow likely to continue.


Once the high moves to the east, the weather is forecast to improve statewide and the showery weather will clear the southeast areas of the state.


SHORT TERM

It is all about the slow movement of the high pressure system in the Bight with the chance of a week long dry spell for many areas running high. With the high anchored out to the state, the rainfall and gusty weather is expected over the SWLD and Western Interior where the long wave trough and deep moisture combined to keep the rainfall there.


The high will move into the eastern and southeastern inland of the nation, making room for the moisture and rainfall to spread into the Bight mid next week and then further southeast and east throughout the remainder of next week, so rainfall chances start to come up for Southern Ag Areas of the state from about a week from now.


LONG TERM

We will be seeing a lot of wet weather developing in the west of the nation associated with the developing cold fronts and moisture streaming in from the Indian Ocean with a series of large cloud bands moving through with rainfall chances increasing over the next week. This will be moving into the Bight later next week and we should start to see rainfall chances increasing from the latter part of next week and more likely into the weekend over the southeast and eastern inland.


So make the most of the drier weather developing over the state in the coming week as it will not last so long.


AREAS TO WATCH

The Indian Ocean Dipole being in negative phase will be the driver supporting rainfall spreading throughout the interior from northwest to southeast. The impacts of this moisture spreading into cold fronts will be the wild card throughout the medium to long term.


The Southern Annular Mode tending negative is shifting the rain bearing westerly wind belt further north leading to windy weather with showery weather, this rainfall could become more widespread if the moisture is ingested into frontal weather and there have been some models supporting this idea

WEATHER VIDEO PM - THURSDAY 9TH JUNE 2022

FORECAST

Rainfall Next 10 Days

Light showers and drizzle is expected to be in place for the Lower SE Districts throughout the coming few days with most falls less than about 7mm. The rainfall should clear from the the holiday Monday with the high pressure system over the state from Monday into Tuesday leading to a statewide clearance with seasonal temperatures developing. A trend towards warmer and more breezy conditions are forecast to develop ahead of the next set of fronts, most of these next week should be in a weakening phase, but likely to drag cloud and light rainfall across southern areas from this time next week. A stronger cold front is forecast to move through WA from later next week and move through the Ag Areas here, from next weekend and that will likely be the next major rainfall chance for the state and that continuing into the medium term.

The southern Ag Areas will see clearance of the showers by Saturday and the southeast by Sunday, but light falls is all we can expect. The rainfall will return from mid next week with further light falls, with the frontal weather expected to weaken as we move through the outlook. Some stronger signals for rainfall are emerging through next weekend and beyond.

Frost Risk Early Next Week

With a strong ridge sitting over the interior and back over the eastern inland, with all the cold dry air under the high, this will keep the temperatures low enough to support frost formation early next week, but the most severe frosts could be located back through NSW and QLD at this time, but more specific charts are to be drawn on Sunday for this event. Growers be aware.

MEDIUM TERM

June 16th-23rd 2022

Rainfall Anomalies

Rainfall anomalies above the norm remains a higher chance over the SWLD where persistent frontal weather and deep moisture is forecast to linger through the region. Mainly seasonal values elsewhere as the weather from the west, comes into the south and southeast with that wetter bias likely to be observed over SA and VIC as well as pockets of NSW/ACT expected towards the end of the month.

Temperature Anomalies

I warned that the blue shading would be removed in the forecasts moving along this week for the medium term and a sharp shift back to warmer than normal weather is expected for large chunks of the nation as a broad northwesterly flow developing, pumping that warmer air from the northwest down into Central Australia and into the southeast and eastern inland.

DATA - Refer to video for more information and the model comparison and context about all the forecast products you see from me


00Z GFS - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 2 Weeks

More information can be found in the video content to bring you the very latest context to the information being shared with you.


00Z GFS - Precipitable Water Values - Next 2 Weeks

The moisture content being above normal will continue to be found in WA and that streaming through the Indian Ocean through the jet stream and into the western and central interior from the middle of next week. This may lead to more widespread cloud and rainfall developing across the nation from later next week. Until then, dry and colder air to persist over the east and southeast for the long weekend and into next week and the chance of more widespread rainfall not on the horizon, until we see the moisture kick out the dry air, which will happen, but looking more likely from mid next week through parts of SA and then the southeast from later next week into the weekend.



00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to the video for more context and analysis

00Z CMC - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to the video for more context and analysis

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 2 Weeks

Refer to the video for more context and analysis

A closer look in - widespread showers are easing over the southeast of the nation but the inland areas grading from cloudy over northern VIC and southern NSW through to partly cloudy for areas further north to clear along the QLD border and along the east coast. Clearer weather is expected to develop throughout for next week, but we could see a few showers return from later next week and that looks to persist into the medium term and I suspect we will see widespread falls extending inland so dismiss the drier weather unfolding on this chart.

More coming up from 8pm EST with a look at the models and rainfall.



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