The weather is shifting this week, and we are unlikely to see severe weather with the transition to a colder snap, which is somewhat unusual, but none the less, we are likely to see more typical weather for May, as a showery airmass moves through from later Tuesday.

Over the course of Monday and much of Tuesday, conditions will likely be mild with a warming trend in the northwest flow ahead of the front later on Tuesday. But from there, temperatures are forecast to decrease and the showery streams will develop along and in the wake of the front.

A colder drier airmass will penetrate inland and all Ag areas should be seeing well below average temperatures as forecast since last week, for the remainder of this week, and that change in temperatures could cause a few headaches for farmers and graziers over the southeast and south with well below average temperatures.

As we move into the weekend, the weather should clear for all and the day time temperatures should recover. But overnight temperatures could be below average with the absence of moisture, the clear skies and light winds, low single figures are possible.

There is a very low chance of frost, the bulk of that should be further east of the state.

Next week, the next weather maker should be on the approach for the SWLD of WA and that could see a rain band form along the front as it approaches from after the 10th of May. That will be a system to watch for us

Lets take a look


Rainfall Next 10 Days

Rainfall is forecast to be light to moderate at best for the southeast and southern coastal areas with a cold front rising from the Southern Ocean during later Tuesday. Many areas should see a period of light rainfall but with the air being a lot drier with this feature and the colder airmass behind being very dry, this will not be a big rain maker. So falls as displayed are reflective of that. We will see the bulk of the wet weather likely to be between Tuesday night and Friday morning and by the weekend, the state should return to dry as a whole. Inland areas may see some light and patchy falls in the far northwest, but otherwise for now a very typical May week of rainfall across the state.

Farmers and Graziers - Mid Week

The main concern is over the eastern and southeast of the state for graziers with the southwest to southerly flow coupled with showers and small hail impacting exposed stock until Thursday afternoon. Conditions ease by Friday

Frost Risk - Late Week

I am drawing it just further east of the state, but I will mention that areas in the Riverlands, MurrayLands and the Upper and Lower SE should pay attention to overnight temperature forecasts this week for frost risk.

MEDIUM TERM - May 8th-15th 2022

Rainfall Anomalies

The wet bias does want to keep on going through northeast parts of the nation with persistent troughing and ridging combining with the onshore flow (via the positive SAM) to bring more rainfall for a lot of QLD and into NSW. The southwest seeing an increase in wet weather after this dry week, with a long wave trough parked in the region combining with the moisture streaming out of the Indian Ocean. Elsewhere, no strong bias for the rainfall distribution to be anything outside of seasonal.

Temperature Anomalies

The cooler bias continues for the west after a warmer week this week, the temperatures will come down and the weather in the east will warm up through this period. So overall, the pattern will flip during this time. Northern areas still running above average with humidity set to return from the north and east.

DATA - Refer to the video for further information and it is critical to keep check of the data sets to understand where the next major weather events are emerging from outside of this period. It may be quiet now but I am all about preparation and ensuring that information is shared with you as soon as it is available.

00Z GFS - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 2 Weeks

The pressure pattern is largely unchanged from this morning and I think we will start to get a better idea on the impacts of rainfall for eastern areas of QLD and into NSW with the colder air surging north and feeding into the moisture, that could happen mid week or again over the weekend with an upper trough in the region. The showery weather over the southeast could be rather productive and certainly the coldest weather of the year will be moving northwards during the coming week. A dry airmass will suppress rainfall for extensive areas of the nation. Into the weekend and we could still have lingering rainfall over the northeast and eastern tropics. At this stage the next major rain maker approaches the west of the nation during the coming weekend and will likely start to fall from the following week and then spread east. The remainder of the nation, fairly quiet for now but I would expect more active weather through the medium term from the 10-15th of May. How that looks remains to be seen.

00Z GFS - Precipitable Water Values - Next 2 Weeks

Moisture spreading through the nation's north looks to move further east and northeast as we have a drier surge spreading north this week and that dominates the weather this week. A colder drier airmass will herald the start of the Autumnal shift and the trends towards the Winter Season. This will reduce rainfall chances this week for many inland areas. We will see the next wave of moisture build over the west and northwest of the nation from the end of the weekend into next week. Over the east, we could see widespread showers but via lower level moisture lingering through the easterly flow that emerges as new high pressure works in from the west. The tropical north enjoying a drier surge but it may not last that long.

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to the video for more context and analysis

00Z CMC - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to the video for more context and analysis

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 2 Weeks

Refer to the video for more context and analysis

A closer look in - Be interesting to see where the low this week ends up as that will dictate the overall shower streams that set up over the Ag Areas between Wednesday and Friday.

More coming up from 8am EST and more on the La Nina potential tomorrow as well for the back half of this year and the updated ENSO forecast.

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