SA - SHOWERS SLOWLY MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST. DRY AND SETTLED OVER THE INLAND.

The weather responding to the high pressure system that is moving in from the west this afternoon. That high continues to move further east as we go through the coming days. It will help to contract the showers further south and east during Thursday and by Friday most of the state dry away from the southeast districts.


The weekend is looking much drier throughout in a mild northwest wind. The weather expected to remain mild and sunny for the inland through next week.


The tricky part of forecasting in the short term is how far the moisture comes east from WA with the lead frontal weather and how far north those fronts will be.


It is likely that the weather will remain fairly unchanged during the coming week, with the fronts likely to pass south of the state, but will be watched.


Moisture continues to flirt with us during the medium term. It should be a very different atmosphere for northern and western parts of the nation, while in the east, the showery weather may increase bringing back moisture to the eastern inland, so there are many areas of interest coming up from mid month.


00Z GFS Surface Pressure Pattern for the coming 16 days

The pressure largely unchanged from this morning throughout the nation with the high the dominant feature for all states and territories for the coming few days. Drier skies over the inland as reflected in the pressure and rainfall forecasts but the onshore winds around the high will be responsible for the gloom in the southeast to finish the week, the showers and moisture that builds over the eastern QLD and northern NSW coast from the weekend if not next week. But the high will see an improvement in weather conditions for large swathes of the country with temperatures on the rise and that may continue into next week. Now frontal weather for WA is still expected with strong winds and moderate rainfall developing from Saturday. The showery weather increasing from next week with stronger frontal boundaries moving through in a cold westerly wind. Those fronts may bring showers to coastal SA with those fronts possibly linking up with moisture in the east to bring widespread showers or rainfall in about a week over VIC, NSW and southeast QLD. We still have moisture pooling over the north and west of the nation in the medium term.

00z GFS Rainfall for the coming 10 days

Rainfall numbers are unchanged for the first 4 days of the outlook with the wet weather contracting to coastal areas. Then we have high pressure that will dominate the eastern states. Showers clear VIC and low cloud lifts by the weekend as the high rolls through and shifts the winds into the northwest. Over QLD and NSW, the winds may shift onshore southeast to easterly through the weekend as the high takes a trip to the southeast so moisture increasing with showers developing for the east coast. Some of that moisture may be captured by a front that will bring showers to areas of SA and then those showery areas increasing over VIC, NSW and southern QLD if the front can capture the moisture in the northeast flow. So the next widespread rainfall event could be this time next week.

00z GFS Precipitable Water Anomalies next 16 days

As outlined in great detail in the medium term forecasting, there is little skill in specifically forecasting beyond about 7 days right now and my rainfall forecasts reflect that. The moisture however will continue to build over vast areas of northern, western and eastern Australia. It is coming down to what low pressure trough or front will be the first system to lift the moisture and where. But inland rainfall chances are lifting from mid month.

00z Euro Surface Pressure Pattern for the coming 10 days

Euro very similar nationally across the nation over the coming 4 days as per the GFS. Frontal weather will be approaching the west of the nation while the southeast states clear out by the weekend. A large high will set up camp next week over the east with only one front at the stage to watch coming in from WA through SA mid week and then into the southeast states with showers and or patchy rainfall, but the high should rebuild rapidly after that system moves through into late next week. The moisture as you can see continues the on again off again run for the medium term, but moisture as you can see below is building still mid month onwards and I expect to see rainfall return in the medium term over the inland of the nation.

00z Euro Rainfall for the coming 10 days

Light showers and drizzle through the southeast inland will clear towards the coastal areas of VIC and SA over the coming 24hrs. This will see the inland of NSW clear and the inland of QLD will remain dry for now. The easterly winds will redevelop during the weekend and next week bringing moisture back to the east coast and so showers will develop in response to that. Some of that moisture may be drawn inland and then into the eastern inland of NSW to prop up the rainfall coming in from the west this time next week. Showers will be patchy through western NSW and VIC as well as SA but could increase for central and eastern NSW under current guidance so something to watch.

00z Euro Precipitable Water Values next 10 days

Really no difference over the coming week with the dry air being overrun by the moisture that is building over the inland areas of the nation. That moisture is now being held back over parts of WA and surging through QLD in this run, it will change in the next run. But the message is still the same, more humid weather developing for northern Australia lifting rainfall chances for the back half of the month.

Rainfall for the next 10 days

Rainfall continues to contract to the southeast coastal areas and clear during the coming days. The inland is largely fine and dry now until this time next week. As you can see there is a front that is coming through Tuesday, at this stage the main moisture source collapses as the system rolls east, but the front will encounter better moisture east of the state at this time through NSW but this COULD change further so keep up to date. The moisture continues to move from run to run in the modelling and there is so no skill in the forecasting in the medium term, other than acknowledging that the moisture is expected to build further north, west and east of us during the middle of the month onwards.

More weather details to come on Thursday with another look at that moisture for mid month as there is a chance that the models may start to come into agreement in the coming days on that topic, follow up rainfall for inland areas of the nation is possible.



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