SA - SHOWERS INCREASING WITH THE RISK OF A FEW STORMS IN THE SOUTH. FINE WEATHER IN THE NORTH.

The trough has been meandering through SA during the past 24hrs which has delivered a lot of middle and high level cloud with spits and spots of rainfall, and really light rainfall for most areas, not much making it into the gauges. Well that is about to change for southeast and eastern areas during the coming 24hrs with a low approaching the region.


The trough will march east and take the most dynamic and deepest moisture with it into NSW and VIC but as the low moves through southeastern areas, there could be a backwash of moisture in southerly winds producing some productive rainfall, again the further east and south you go the better your chances.


Lets take a look to see whether there is more rainfall forecast beyond this period for those hanging on by a thread with their crops.

Rainfall for the next 10 days.

This is a tricky forecast and with thunderstorms, these charts become increasingly difficult to draw and so just understand that your number will vary as the thunderstorms pop up in this event tomorrow and indeed as we move through the Spring and Summer. The rainfall tomorrow will be patchy but the rain could be moderate at times over the southeast and eastern districts where thunderstorms are most likely. Further west, light and patchy rainfall in southerly winds possible for the Eyre Peninsula. The weather gradually clears by Thursday with a stable airmass. A weakening front and low pressure system passes through the Bight over the weekend, it could produce some reasonable shower coverage Sunday afternoon before another event develops from the west in about a week.

Eastern Border

Southeast Districts

Agricultural Areas

Thunderstorm Forecast Wednesday

Thunderstorms are possible in isolated pockets as a low pressure system moves through to the south of Adelaide and then into the southeast districts with some moderate rainfall but severe weather is not expected at this time. The weather is expected to become more stable as we go throughout the remainder of the week and the storm focus will move away as the low contracts into VIC.

DATA

Euro 00z - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 10 days

No real changes from this morning with widespread rainfall over the eastern states dominating with lighter falls back over SA for the coming days. Severe storms bringing wild weather to parts of NSW and QLD in particular. Flooding a concern under the current synoptic guide as discussed in the video for the east. QLD could see there best rainfall since July with the coverage of showers and thunderstorms over a number of days. For western parts of the nation a few showers and storms tomorrow ahead of a stronger front on Friday bringing more widespread rain and strong winds. That system will have a tough time up against the blocking pattern over in the east. It is still likely to bring scattered showers and gales to parts of SA and into VIC, but moisture is way more limited than with this current system. Another system should roll through the southwest of the nation early next week with more showers and storms, that system again tracking eastwards. Over the tropics the weather turning sultry and thundery, though an upper high may suppress activity at times next week.

Euro 00z - Precipitable Water Anomalies - Next 10 days

Again no real shift in the guidance with widespread rainfall developing out of a deep moisture layer that has built via easterly winds since Sunday and another port of mid and upper level moisture rushing in on the northern flank of low pressure in the Bight into the eastern states via the jet stream. Widespread rainfall is starting to occur over the eastern states as a result. The moisture content will stick around until southerly winds sweep the moisture out to sea. Another moisture surge comes south and southeast through the nation bringing another burst of rain to the west near the trough and front. The moisture thins out as it hits a brick wall over the east so rainfall coverage will not be as extensive due to this blocking pattern. Then another surge of moisture is anticipated over the southwest and west of the nation with another system next week, the tropics turn soupy and humid with increasing PW values and perhaps some of that drifting into WA sitting ready for the jet stream to pick up and lift southeast.

Euro 00z - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 days

Rainfall unchanged from last night and this morning, your number will vary under thunderstorm activity. The best of it falling over the east and southeas these next few days, before the focus shifts back to SWLD of WA Friday and then that sweeps through the southern states during the weekend and into early next week. Another system may bring more rainfall to the SWLD of WA continuing the trend of above average rainfall for the region this year. The northern tropics remain suppressed so if you are a fan of feeling like you are in Hades, well this weather will be for you.

A closer look in now.

GFS 00z - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 days

You can find out more about this chart in the video.

More details to come tonight from 9pm looking at the full model spread and an update on the severe weather potential, IF there are any changes ongoing.


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