SA - SHOWERS INCREASING SUNDAY - WITH A COLDER SHIFT FOR THE STATE.

Showers ongoing over the Northeast Pastoral district with a few thunderstorms are continuing to contract north and east overnight with light falls and a lot of dust and reduced visibility.


In the south, dry air suppressed rainfall chances, even after the overnight thundery showers which caused some noise. The weather is expected to turn colder and showery though later Sunday into Monday with the passage of a front, with again light falls, ahead of settled weather from mid week with improving temperatures.


Lets take a look.

Rainfall for the next 10 days

The rainfall remains light and patchy over the northeastern third of the state tonight as a trough and weakening jet moves eastwards. A strong cold front over the southeast during Sunday will bring the next round of showers to the southern districts, more widespread over the SE Districts. The weather turns drier from later Monday into Tuesday as the flow stabalises and not much rainfall expected through next week with the high taking over. Rainfall chances sit just outside of this period to finish the month.

Looking further east

Thunderstorm Forecast Saturday.

Thunderstorms from tonight will linger through Saturday morning in scattered pockets before clearing eastwards and away by lunch. Some strong gusty winds are possible and raised dust.

Dust Risk Saturday

This risk from tonight through Saturday will contract further east as the trough passes east and the wind flow starts to moderate.

Farmers and Graziers Monday-Wednesday.

The issue is heightened further east where the cold air will be drawn north through VIC and NSW. Significant risk of frost developing through the outlook period as well, with winds turning calm and skies clearing. That will be the focus of forecasts on Sunday once we get a few more data sets under our belts.

DATA

THE MODEL MADNESS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK -

GFS 00Z Tuesday

A low develops on the front and moves slowly east, cutting off from the westerly flow.

Euro 00Z Tuesday Afternoon

The Euro moves the system through as an open wave with no low pressure near NSW, but forming it closer to NZ.

Euro 00z Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall - Next 10 days

Pattern is largely unchanged but shows a colder airmass that poses some concern for the southeast states next week in terms of frost and graziers issues with well below average temperatures. The weather over in the west by contrast, lovely, settled and warm, and the hot dry weather over the tropics will continue right through the outlook. The weather over the eastern inland north of NSW will likely remain dry for much of the outlook. There may be a front that interrupts moisture building back up over northern and eastern areas of the nation in the last week of September, but not all models agree on this idea, and introduce a low pressure system from WA with inland troughs forming. With the SAM trending more positive, I would think easterly winds likely return, but not one rule in weather is ever fixed. But it is looking quieter next week past the cold blast.

Euro 00z Precipitable Water Anomalies - Next 10 days

PW Anomalies really paint the picture of the significant dry airmass developing throughout the nation, suppressing rainfall chances, drying out the tropics and combining with high pressure to promote clear skies and increasing the risk of frost through the eastern states. How severe the frost gets remains to be seen, but will keep watch and have frost forecasts for the east next week by Sunday. Otherwise, the moisture does return over WA later next week into the weekend and this may start to introduce rainfall back for the last week of the month. Otherwise it is benign for now and quieter next week.

Euro 00z Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 days

GFS 00z Rainfall Accumulation - Next 16 days - A second system is on the board later in September which Euro does not see that far out.

More details to come on Saturday morning with the National Weather Wrap.

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