There is the chance of thunderstorms over the far east of SA during Tuesday, where as mentioned here during recent days, the moisture from NSW and VIC creeps over the border but then becomes stuck, as the eastwards moving trough meets it and starts to push it back towards NSW and VIC.

That zone will see showers and thunderstorms develop later tomorrow.

Come Wednesday, the showers and storms are expected to be widespread throughout the Ag Areas with the heaviest falls through the southeast and eastern regions, lighter falls further west where drier and more stable air is in place.

Lets take a look

Rainfall for the next 10 days

Rainfall is drawn out over the course of 3 days this week and then we have another burst of showers likely across the weekend. Sadly the peak of these systems is anticipated to be around SA but not over SA. However the dribs and drabs will accumulate to about 10-15mm in some locations, again heavier falls further east and north. The system over the weekend may provide better opportunity for rainfall across the Eyre Peninsula as the front slides through. Inland areas north of Woomera should remain dry for now.

Southeast SA

Agricultural Areas

Thunderstorm Forecast Tuesday

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible about the east during the afternoon and evening with a trough approaching the moisture spreading southwest and south through the eastern states. The deeper moisture and more unstable air is further east in NSW and VIC but some the ignition point for thunderstorms could be over the border regions later in the day.

Euro 00z - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution Next 10 days

The pressure pattern is largely unchanged as we track a deep trough into a moist airmass sitting over the eastern inland of the nation. This is leading to a significant increase in rainfall across the eastern states during the coming days, starting with showers and storms throughout the east and parts of eastern SA on Tuesday. A weak trough will likely move east to clip the SWLD of WA bringing a few showers during Wednesday ahead of a stronger system during Thursday. Meanwhile, Wednesday through Thursday is where we see the east coast event peak with significant rainfall and thunderstorm activity across QLD, NSW and VIC. Some of the storms could be severe and flash flooding is a high risk. SA could see some reasonable rainfall as the low slowly moves over the region, meandering about with one or two storms or the Ag Areas, better rainfall for the eastern districts. Over in the west, we will see another system pass through on Friday with areas of rain and a few thunderstorms about, this rainfall the most widespread of the week and likely extending east and south throughout the state. This system will quickly run across to be near the Eyre Peninsula during the weekend bringing gusty winds and showers, then onwards to the southeast by Sunday. Another system is likely to then move through the eastern states bringing a burst of showers and gusty winds for the region. Yet another system is likely to approach WA at the end of the period bringing further rain periods.

Euro 00z - Precipitable Water Anomalies Next 10 days

The PW Anomalies are largely unchanged with a decent supply of moisture running down the GDR this evening, and starting to already be picked up by a trough producing showers and thunderstorms. Some of the storms are putting out a decent amount of rainfall through southern QLD. The moisture will continue to be drawn south into NSW and VIC on Tuesday with showers and thunderstorms breaking out. The moisture may creep into eastern SA and then be wrapped into the low pressure as it rolls into the southeast, backwashing moisture over SA Wednesday and Thursday with increasing showers. A deep pool of moisture sits over the eastern inland during the second half of this week, and it will not be until Saturday that the moisture begins to move out. Another surge of deep moisture comes through the SWLD of WA, this will be the focus of the most widespread rainfall for the region this week. Some of the rainfall could be heavy thanks to the deeper moisture out of the Indian Ocean. Over the tropics the moisture should begin to deepen once again and likely to run southwards next week.

Euro 00z - Rainfall Distribution Next 10 days

Rainfall is largely confined to southern and eastern portions of the nation, the heaviest of it coming through this week over the eastern inland of Australia. Flooding is a concern for areas along the GDR in NSW, particularly the catchments over the central and southern reaches of the range. The flood risk also high over northeast VIC. QLD can expect the best rainfall chances for inland areas since July. The weather does not quite clear the eastern inland through the weekend, with still scattered showers about, but the rainfall intensity will be diminished somewhat. The rainfall will be most widespread over in the west of the nation by the time we hit the end of the week with a good supply of moisture coming into the system as it passes through from the Indian Ocean through to the southeast. Over the north, scattered showers and storms will begin to redevelop as moisture deepens and the upper levels become more unstable.

Closer look

Apologies again about the technical difficulties. I will alert if there are any reasons to go to the forum which is the back up blog if this goes down. More on the climate outlook tomorrow.

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