An upper low is currently building to the south of the state as it works east from the Bight, drawing in moisture from Anika in upper level northwest winds. That has resulted in a large high cloud band throughout the state with light to moderate rainfall spilling into the far west as forecast
That rainfall over the west will be eroded by the new ridge passing through the Bight region. This will hold the remainder of the state dry following the upper low over the SE districts tomorrow.
So once we lose the showers and possibly a storm in the southeast, conditions will clear and look relatively benign next week with a dry and stable southeast to easterly flow. Conditions will warm gradually as we move through the week and into the weekend.
Lets take a look
Rainfall Next 10 Days
Rainfall is expected to develop over the southeast tomorrow with the approach of the upper low and the subsequent passage of this feature. The heaviest of the rainfall may be over the border with VIC but more likely through VIC and into NSW through the weekend. We have ongoing patchy rainfall over the Northwest Pastoral District and the Nullarbor but this will begin to clear overnight and during Friday as high pressure begins to eat away at the moisture left over from Anika. For the state next week, dry and settled and no rainfall expected.
The rainfall over the southeast has shifted further east as the upper low looks more likely to ignite the heavy rainfall into VIC. There could be moderate showers and local thunder tomorrow morning but more likely over the eastern border.
Thunderstorm Forecast Friday
Right on the very edge of where storms are forecast to turn strong to severe so if you are living over the southeast, you will see the tops of the storms over VIC through tomorrow if the skies clear. Very much a line ball along the border.
Flash Flood Risk Friday
Right on the edge of the risk zone, but be weather aware in the Upper and Lower SE, the storms do what they want and can drop heavier rainfall regardless of what this map shows, but the higher risk at this time is in VIC.
DATA - There are some data issues tonight from some of the models so cannot post the movie versions of the data. I believe there is an issue with some of the servers internationally.
More details coming up from 8am EDT on Friday.