And indeed from Friday most of the state should be back under the influence of a flat ridge of high pressure with settled skies and light winds.

You can see the front has moved through to the east now and the weather has turned mostly dry over the inland. Still have a few showers along the coast tonight and Thursday for SA.

The weekend is settled too with the high passing to the east with a northwest flow redeveloping leading to warmer temperatures.

Temperatures are expected to remain warm over the inland for most of the next week through outback SA, coastal areas may take a little longer to get back to the levels seen yesterday.

Next week the weather is all over the board. The models had an upper trough and front passing through WA this weekend bringing a burst of showers there and rainfall for SA was anticipated to redevelop for southern SA by this time next week, tonight, what system? It is back to high pressure.

So even the 5 day forecast window adopts a low confidence at the moment, and I expect this will continue to change over the coming days.

Medium term still showing some interesting signals.

00Z GFS Surface Pressure Pattern for the coming 16 days

After the front passing through the southeast and east of the nation tonight the weather is expected to settle down for most with high pressure dominating. The flat ridge will consolidate through the weekend and bring mostly fine and dry weather for the coming week over inland areas for now. Along the south coast, weak fronts passing over the southwest and the southeast in the early part of the weekend out west and Monday out east may trigger a few showers. But the model confidence is expected to remain low from later in the weekend with most models chopping and changing throughout the coming medium term. The highest chance of rainfall for the coming period will be tonight through Thursday and then again over the east coast with onshore winds.

00z GFS Rainfall for the coming 16 days

After tonight for most areas away from the eastern and southern coast, it is dry for a while with high pressure taking over the nation. Next major chance of rainfall on this particular run comes through WA from mid next week with a strong front emerging from the southwest and that links into moisture near a weak trough, potentially spreading a broad area of rain throughout the southern and eastern inland from later next week so at this stage it looks like a week between events for most of the south. Up north the humidity is increasing further throughout the outlook with showers about, a shift in the season is underway early this year.

00z GFS Precipitable Water Anomalies next 16 days

The PW values are still following the same song and dance, drier air flushing out the moisture over the east tonight and tomorrow, and pushing it into QLD. The weather then dry under high pressure through much of the south, the moisture relocating to the north of the nation. The pattern flip continues to evolve this week. Then the moisture returns through the west of the nation being drawn south and east via the jet stream. Moisture over the east coast remains high thanks to onshore winds persisting throughout the period. This moisture may also spread south and west through the nation from later next week.

00z Euro Surface Pressure Pattern for the coming 10 days

Latest Euro is much drier than the GFS through the entire run again this evening for next week. In fact as you go through the outlook period it is the complete opposite which makes forecasting near impossible next week. The rainfall should be over the for the south and east by the end of tomorrow with a settled spell under high pressure, we spoke about that dominance of high pressure mid month, then the weather starting to turn for the second half of the month. I am still siding with GFS and CMC in the medium term.

00z Euro Rainfall for the coming 10 days

Rainfall is lean for the upcoming week with the falls mainly coastal with vast areas of the inland remaining rain free under the belt of high pressure. Moisture may be reintroduced later next week which could bring rainfall a little further inland over the southeast states but right now the forecast is low confidence and this will change. The one consistent message is that the pattern flip that was forecast 4 weeks ago is now near complete and then we start looking towards the rainfall returning for the back half of the month.

00z Euro Precipitable Water Values next 10 days

PW values are completely opposite to the GFS in the medium term, however there is reasonable agreement in the short term with the passage of a frontal boundary this evening through the southeast then high pressure coming. Showers return to the east coast with elevated moisture levels thanks to onshore winds. Otherwise the model turns very dry through much of the inland which I am not buying at this time.

Rainfall for the next 10 days

Rainfall clearing east tonight with a few showers expected along the coast tonight and tomorrow then dry for a while with a flat ridge of high pressure passing through the south of the nation. A weak front may pass through southeast areas on Monday but the forecast confidence is quite difficult to forecast. Next week the weather may turn warmer ahead of a change at the end of next week bringing the next batch of rainfall.

More weather coming Thursday.

17 views0 comments