The showery weather from overnight over the inland areas, has shifted east, while the coastal portions of SA, especially east of the Nullabor, continues to see showers, more extensive over the southeast districts.
The rainfall has been moderate in some parts and generally light for most others. Some further light falls are expected today as the southwest flow continues to move through.
The colder drier air has cleared a lot of the inland from cloud cover, the cold pool itself is sitting over the southeast coast this morning, moving the showery weather with hail into VIC. Residual showers will continue today for coastal areas but become more isolated from the west. The weather dries out over the inland.
Rainfall to 7am
Clare recorded 11mm overnight and generally 5-10mm for many locations. Light rainfall is expected for coastal areas from this point on and drier weather for the inland a for a while.
The winds will turn into the west from Wednesday, the airmass rather humid and unstable still over coastal areas, will give rise to thick cloud and showers, especially over the southeast areas. The inland, partly cloudy and cool but dry.
From Thursday, I suspect the weather will be mostly dry, again away from the southeast districts where the showers may continue, but the frequency decreasing. As we track into Friday, this is where the weather clears.
Weekend looks dry, fine and mostly sunny with temperatures moving above average. Then we will see the next round of frontal weather approaching next week with the chance of some moisture being dragged across the nation, this lifting the chance of inland rainfall IF the moisture can be in phase with the cold front.
The confidence in forecasting next week is low, as it usually is in the period of the pattern flip.
12Z GFS Surface Pressure Pattern for the coming 16 days
The last of the waves is passing through the southeast states today and a drier and colder airmass can be seen moving through SA this morning, that will also move east and north this morning. The weather will remain cold and cloudy through the southeast states for the next couple of days, though inland areas of NSW, QLD and SA should see clearer weather as will the east coast. A high moving over WA will move over southern parts of the nation, that bringing a spell of settled weather from later this week into the weekend. Fine and hot over the north with humidity values rising dramatically as the winds veer northeast. Then we watch frontal weather come back for the west of the nation, that progressing east into the medium term bringing up rainfall chances with the chance of another northwest cloud band developing.
12z GFS Rainfall for the coming 16 days
The bulk of the wet weather coming during the next 2 days but then dry for a while. The next batch of rainfall comes through next week and then a major rainfall event if GFS is right coming through during the medium term, mid month from the central parts of the nation. Keep watching the medium term forecasts and the moisture watch over the coming days as there is something stirring mid month.
12z GFS Precipitable Water Anomalies next 16 days
The elevated PW values are expected to be replaced by colder drier air today, with that drier surge sweeping through NSW and QLD by later today and clearing out the humidity by tomorrow. The drier air will continue to dominate inland areas with low level moisture keeping the low cloud in place for much of the southeast. Drier air and stable northwest winds will clear skies over the southeast with the next surge of moisture coming in ahead of the weekend front, producing widespread rainfall for WA. That moisture then moves eastwards over next week with light rainfall for now, but note the dry air is hard to find mid month increasing inland rainfall chances mid month.
12z Euro Surface Pressure Pattern for the coming 10 days
Very good agreement with the modelling this morning, the last wave passing through this morning and tending to clear the southeast by Wednesday. A high ridging in will then start to clear out the southeast and eastern inland with drier and sunnier weather expected this weekend. Then next week the frontal weather from WA will spread into the eastern states with that being the chance for more widespread light follow up rainfall from SA through southeastern inland parts of the nation.
12z Euro Rainfall for the coming 10 days
Rainfall has mostly fallen this morning, and this model depicts a lot of the rainfall that fell overnight and during this morning. So essentially dry weather for inland areas until next week. Coastal showers for SA, VIC and eastern NSW will be light and patchy for the coming 5 days before we have another batch of rain approaching during this time next week.
12z Euro Precipitable Water Values next 10 days
The moisture is moving out this morning and will clear the eastern inland and off the east coast by Wednesday with a dry southerly surge moving in. That dry air will clear the cloud over inland areas, but low level moisture over the southeast states will keep cloud going the further south you are until about Thursday. The weather is resetting this week, and with a high coming through the southern states, the moisture will also reset. Another cloud band develops from the west this weekend and moisture begins to increase over the eastern inland in easterly winds. That like the GFS, then increases the rainfall chances for the nation from mid month, with the western parts of the nation seeing wet weather from as early as this week.
Rainfall for the next 10 days
Rainfall is dropping away as we are in between long waves and high pressure should dominate the next 5 days or so. Perhaps some light rainfall returning from early next week at the earliest for the southeast states. Showers may developing for the east coast in onshore winds with the falls remaining light. Moisture builds up next week with temperatures increasing over inland areas. That will be next chance to see rainfall increase over inland areas. With moisture building over large parts of the inland, that will be eventually transported south and southeast into SA.
Climate update to come from lunchtime today.