SA - SHOWERS EASING TONIGHT AND A DRY WEEK ON THE WAY - BUT THE PATTERN SHIFTS NEXT WEEK

The weather after the left over showers and storms over the state clear tonight returns to settled and dry with a large high off to the southwest pushing in another pulse of dry air into the region. The drier air coupled with the high pressure passing over the region leading to settled weather once again.


Not much change over the weekend is expected with temperatures on the climb with an easterly wind shift then a shift into northeast. The weather tending seasonal from next week with hot weather over the western areas and through northern areas as well.


Moisture via the tropics will begin to spread south through the NT and may begin to knock on the door of northern SA mid to late next week and with easterly winds also bringing moisture in from NSW and QLD, this could bring the chance of showers and thunderstorms across the eastern districts later next week.


There is a signal for improved rainfall chances as we enter into March with the peak of moisture and low pressure across the nation.


Lets take a look

FORECAST

Rainfall Next 10 Days

Rainfall is expected to thin out over the next 24hrs and the weather relatively dry for the coming 6 days for most of the state. We will have to keep watch on the moisture building over eastern Australia and over the northern tropics as well with that moisture likely to drift southwards and westwards as the flow pattern turns northeast to easterly. There is the expectation a trough is to form over the state and where that sets up, will determine the scope and spread of rainfall throughout the state. But for now, following a month's worth of rainfall over parts of the Eyre Peninsula in recent days, dry weather for most over the coming week.

DATA - Refer to the video for more information with regards to the short and medium term analysis


00Z GFS - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 2 Weeks

The nation still remains in a dry airmass with only showery weather for the far east coast and along the southeast coast with a weak trough and front. Showers and storms quite thin in the air over parts of the northern tropics. Over the course of the next 5 days, the upper pattern will start to cool and become more unstable over much of the north and through eastern Australia. The climate drivers which have been covered off extensively, the SAM and MJO, will rotate around to be in phase, producing a pattern more supportive of widespread rainfall for northern and eastern Australia, starting about coastal areas but then spreading inland. In advance of more widespread rainfall over the inland of the nation, scattered showers and storms should feature through much of the NT, QLD, NSW and extend into VIC before we see more organised weather emerge later in the period and into the medium term. Models now showing the monsoonal weather to emerge at the end of the month into early March.

00Z GFS - Precipitable Water Values - Next 2 Weeks

No change to the guidance with the moisture gradually increasing across the central, northern and eastern parts of the nation with the wind patterns supporting the moisture to pool over the southeast and east of the nation. The weather over in the southwest and south are expected to be drier than normal with the prevailing wind pattern running over land, meaning dry hot winds for southern WA and western SA and parts of the southern NT.

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to video for more

00Z CMC - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to video for more

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 16 Days

Refer to video for more and the state based fly around and analysis

A closer look in - this rainfall guide will be changing I can assure you!

More details coming up tomorrow from 8am EDT with a look tomorrow at Winter 2022 at a glance and to see where the data takes us and how that stacks up against previous outlooks and years.


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