SA - SHOWERS EASING FOR THE SOUTH - MORE SHOWERS MID WEEK, AND INLAND RAIN CHANCES COME UP LATER.

The fast flow pattern with widespread showers and the odd storm for southern areas are now in the process of easing and clearing from the west with a high pressure ridge passing through. That ridge is likely to be pushed north by another fast front on Wednesday afternoon and a prefrontal trough. The trough expected to kick off showers and storms for the north and east while the front brings showers for southern areas.


Over the weekend, the moisture is expected to hang back over pats of inland SA near the NT border. A developing trough and upper low is expected to deepen over the region this weekend and approach the moisture, this allowing for more widespread showers and storms to develop.


The weather forecasting becomes quite low confidence as we approach the end of the weekend with chance of widespread rain about, but how far south does that rainfall come?


Lets take a look

Rainfall next 10 days

Rainfall is expected to be light and patchy for southern areas with clearing showers about. The showery weather will return for southern areas during Wednesday afternoon into Thursday thanks to another cold front. The front is expected to amplify rainfall chances further east once again with a decent slab of moisture to work with out there. Then part of that moisture is likely to remain over central and northern parts of the nation waiting to be picked up by a deepening low that will drive widespread showers and storms over the weekend into next week before moving east. How far south that rainfall comes is tricky to forecast.

GFS DATA SET HAS HAD A MAJOR ERROR AND IS CURRENTLY STUCK - SO I AM DISREGARDING THE DATA SET FOR 00Z.


Euro 00z - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 10 days

The modelling is still unchanged in the short term, we have that cold front passing through southeast Australia tonight bringing scattered showers and a few storms as forecast and showers moving into the SWLD of WA. That front will race across the Bight and move into SA Wednesday with showers developing, more widespread as the system rolls through the southeast states. Part of an upper trough accompanying the system is expected to hang back over the interior parts of the nation and will link up with another shot of moisture drawn in from the north and widespread showers and storms are likely to form this weekend into next week. The rain and storm event could be quite heavy over QLD, NSW or VIC coming up in about a week's time. The west likely to dry out under a ridge from mid week for a while. Over the north the hot weather is expected to continue this week with an upper high but the odd pop up storm for those lucky few over northern NT and QLD.

Euro 00z - Precipitable Water Anomalies - Next 10 days

You can see that recycling of the moisture throughout the nation later this week as the lack of southwest winds can flush the moisture out now, and more moisture is expected to sweep in from the northern tropics into the interior producing widespread showers and storms. That pattern likely to ramp up over the weekend into next week, continuing to increase rainfall chances over the northern and eastern states. Out west, some drier weather is expected to sweep in from the west under a high, but another impulse of moisture is expected to be drawn in from the Indian Ocean, which could increase the risk of showers and storms after this period. For SA, the outback through the north and east could do very well with the weekend system, with the Ag areas once again being too far south but will keep watching trends.

Euro 00z - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 days

Rainfall, no change from this morning, widespread falls over southeastern, eastern and central areas of the nation thanks to deepening inland troughs and easterly winds. Over the tropics, you will get some more scattered falls developing thanks to weaker upper heights making room for more convection. The west, you are turning dry with high pressure settling but for you in SA, the weather is tricky to forecast, better rainfall the further north you go (don't often say that) and not too bad over the eastern border regions, but the further west you go, it could be pretty lean.

A closer look in

More details coming up on rainfall and the full model spread tonight, and my analysis after 9pm EDST.


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