SA - SHOWERS DEVELOPING TONIGHT WITH A NASTY GALE FOR COASTAL AREAS WITH VERY COLD AIR.

That is setting the stage for a dangerous period for stock exposed to conditions despite the rainfall being on the light to moderate end, this is more an event of high winds, very cold air leading to hazardous conditions for stock to be exposed to for long periods of time.


The first cold front is approaching this afternoon with a secondary burst of cold air and gale force winds. That will be the system to watch over the coming 24hrs with a very cold airmass the major impact along side those winds.





The showery weather will be moderate at times, the best of the rainfall falling over the southeast of the state and the Adelaide Hills.


Most of the inland should get away with isolated showers and thunderstorms with hail, but the winds will be gusty. Raised dust possible over the inland.


Monday the conditions will ease, but showery and windy weather may redevelop later in the day or at night with the next front. The chance of damaging winds with that feature is moderate.


Another system will move through Wednesday and again during Friday and that poses a greater risk of damaging winds and again, more moderate rainfall with the frontal passages, with squally showers to follow.


This weather may persist into next weekend.


Let's look at modelling.


00Z GFS Surface Pressure Pattern for the coming 16 days

Largely unchanged in the modelling tonight with a gusty change approaching with the chance of severe winds and heavy bursts of rain and hail along the front. Then a brisk and colder westerly to take us through to Monday. More fronts to come Tuesday, Wednesday and a larger system likely this time next week. GFS diverges from other modelling and keeps the westerly wave action going through to mid August, but this morning had a pattern flip with a low over SA with inland rainfall, so something is stirring out there.

00z GFS Rainfall for the coming 10 days

Not much change, rainfall over coastal areas, and drier over inland areas. Though the inland rainfall chances will increase as we track through later next week and I do think that will change the rainfall output from the models as they start to pick the moisture and the trough combining to kick off rainfall over inland areas.

00z Euro Surface Pressure Pattern for the coming 10 days

The Euro is adopting the same pattern as the GFS with a strong set of fronts to take us through the coming 2 days and then more fronts to come from Monday night, Tuesday and Wednesday. A stronger feature approaches later next week which has caught my attention as it starts to slow down in response to a sharp upper trough. That trough may interact with moisture over the inland this time next week, bringing up rainfall chances for inland SA. So this is something to watch as we go through the coming days to see if it verifies.

00z Euro Rainfall for the coming 10 days

The modelling shows a high chance of rainfall remaining coastal over southern Australia for the best part of the next 7 days, heaviest through the southeast areas of SA and about the hills. Then a higher chance of rainfall building over inland areas with light to moderate falls from a broad cloud band. Will cross everything that the data continues to hold and intensify this signal with many areas thirsty and needing some more follow up falls before we begin to warm up.

Rainfall for the next 10 days

Rainfall is largely unchanged from this morning, with the signals for inland rainfall meaning I am keeping the light rainfall spread over southern and central inland areas. I will shift this rainfall smear over the state further if the signal strengthens. The southeast and southern coastal areas for now a high chance of seeing 10-35mm for the coming week.

More weather to come on Saturday.



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