A significant change is rolling close to the state tonight and an active day is on the way Wednesday through Thursday with the passage of a low pressure system. Lets take a look at the very latest on that.

Rainfall next 10 days

Rainfall is expected to mainly fall between tonight and Saturday morning throughout the region with the chance of moderate to heavy falls along coastal areas and along the passage of the low Thursday. Thunderstorms are expected in the mix with small hail and squalls, the most severe thunderstorm activity is reserved for areas east of the state. As we track through the weekend, the weather begins to ease as high pressure moves in. The overall pattern is warming up next week ahead of a thundery change from about mid to late next week, that offering the next chance of rainfall after a few hot days.

Damaging Winds Forecast Thursday

The main risk of damaging winds is from Thursday morning through Friday morning for Ag SA. The highest impact of damaging winds will likely be through the Eyre Peninsula and West Coast into the Flinders. This may and probably will change as the location of the low shifts around in modelling so stay up to date.

Farmers and Graziers - Thursday through Saturday.

A nasty low is expected to run across SA on Thursday bringing well below average temperatures, gales and heavy showers with hail. The wind chill will be running very high. That cold airmass descends over VIC and into southern and western NSW during Friday and continues into Saturday with a colder southwest to southerly flow as the low develops in Bass Strait. Conditions ease from the west during Saturday clearing SA during the morning, NSW by afternoon and VIC by Sunday. The risk to stock exposed to these conditions is high.

00z Euro Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 10 Days

The main feature is most certainly the low pressure system passing through the south and southeast this week with a leading trough leading to severe and even violent weather potential Thursday and Friday for NSW and QLD. The peak of the weather in terms of storms is Thursday. Rain heavy at times over VIC could lead to areas of flooding over southern areas, mainly east of Melbourne and West Gippsland. South Australia likely to see a decent amount of showery weather Thursday with gales as the low passes over. The west is warm and dry and the north is under the influence of deep moisture with scattered showers and afternoon thunderstorms. From Sunday the weather over the nation turns quiet with all low pressure moving away and upper high pressure taking over. The west is where the action will be next week with a band of rain and strong winds along an unusual strong cold front and trough passing by. That system will help to lift temperatures well above average across the south and east.

00z Euro Precipitable Water Anomalies - Next 10 Days

No real change from this morning with a deep moisture supply lifting off the east coast but some being left behind ahead the next system coming into SA helping to produce widespread showers and thunderstorms. The weather over SA and VIC turning colder and the airmass drier with a southwest to southerly flow wrapping into the low bringing in cold air from the Southern Ocean. The weather over in the west warm and dry before the next large moisture infeed from the Indian Ocean which is expected to bring above average rainfall. The northern tropics humid and trending even more humid next week with an upper high suppressing rainfall for a period.

00z Euro Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 days

Refer to video for more information on rainfall.

A closer look in.

00z GFS Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 days

Refer to video for more details on rainfall

I will have a full wrap on the models and rainfall tonight after 9pm EDT. It is a significant risk of severe weather over vulnerable crops during Thursday. Remain weather aware in the east. But pay attention into the WA weather because that warmth is heading east next week.

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