SA - SHOWERS DEVELOPING FRIDAY AND A COLD SHOWERY WEEKEND ON THE WAY FOR THE SOUTH. DRIER INTERIOR

The cold weather will continue statewide with a strong and gusty southwest to westerly flow expected to dominate the forecast charts. A series of cold fronts are also likely to rotate around a low pressure system moving through to the south of the state, so this is where the primary focus of rainfall will be found for the Ag Areas.


Over the inland today, we will see patchy rainfall and a lot of cloud move eastwards, with further rainfall expected to develop over the northeast pastoral areas, thanks to the approach of the front to the state. This rainfall will contract into the eastern inland of the country Friday.


A stronger front coming through on Saturday afternoon will likely pack the biggest punch, with gales, widespread showers with local hail and thunder emerging along the front and behind the front into Sunday morning. Moderate falls are possible in some areas, especially about the hills.


Showers will begin to decrease during early next week, but not clear. The onshore flow will continue along the coastal areas and adjacent inland but the rainfall will start to clear over the Eyre Peninsula mid week and the remainder of the southeast by the end of the week with high pressure approaching.


Over the inland, the jet stream will be on the go but with the high nearby, the clouds will give way to only a little patchy rainfall running across northern districts, so essentially dry with below average temperatures for now.


The next major rainfall event to impact the nation is set to develop out west during mid next week and that could start to move eastwards into the medium term, offering further follow up falls to the west and south of the state.


Let’s take a look

FORECAST

Rainfall Next 10 Days

Rainfall has developed once again over northern areas this afternoon with mainly light falls over the pastoral region but drier weather further south of a line from Woomera to Yunta, most of this contracts eastwards overnight. An approaching cold front that has brought showers to the southwest overnight and this morning will move through to the Bight during this evening with that front set to bring a band of showers Friday morning. The showery periods will spread further east throughout the day with a follow up cold front forecast to spread further rain and strong winds over Ag Areas during Saturday and Sunday. Some moderate totals are possible over the weekend before we see the shower coverage decrease slowly during next week in the southwest flow. The jet stream cloud over the interior may offer a few spots of rain but no real rainfall of note is forecast. As we move into the back half of next week, the showers will begin to ease as the new high approaches into the states west with fine weather expected into the weekend. A new rainfall event approaches from next week and that will be the focus of the weather into the medium term.

The agricultural areas are forecast to see further showery bursts with 5-7 day rainfall totals stacking up to many areas recording 10-30mm throughout the period with some light falls getting into northern agricultural areas, but mostly dry weather further north under ridging throughout next week, with the jet stream cloud bands moving through from west to east with the potential for a few spits of rainfall.

Farmers and Graziers - This Weekend and may persist into next week.

The cold and windy weather will continue for large areas of the southeast for the coming week, but we have got a pair of strong cold fronts expected to move through leading to all the elements available, leading to dangerous conditions for stock exposed to these wintry winds and showers. The risk will contract further south into VIC and TAS next week with conditions improving over NSW, though remaining cold.

Severe Weather Watch - Damaging Winds

A strong cold front passing through the southeast will see damaging wind gusts developing ahead, with and behind the feature as it rolls through late Saturday through Sunday and into Monday. The risk will contract into Victoria during Sunday afternoon with a mass of cold showery air persisting into Monday. Strong gradient winds will reach the NSW Alpine areas and bounce off the Great Dividing Range and impact areas to the west of Sydney and Wollongong. The winds ease from Tuesday next week.

Snowline - Sunday through early next week.

Noting that the coldest air will be peaking over the southeast from Sunday to about Tuesday before we see conditions starting to improve over NSW and the atmosphere should begin to warm over VIC and TAS later next week. The weather is forecast to become drier as we go through the week across the inland, so even though there may be colder air, there may be no precipitation available to produce snow, with that staying back into VIC and TAS.

MEDIUM TERM

June 9th-16th 2022

Rainfall Anomalies

The rainfall anomalies are increasing for much of the west of the nation, once again in line with the developing trough offshore the west coast and the chance for widespread rainfall to develop over the central and northern interior areas of WA. Some of this could drift into the northern tropics and then spreading southeast into the Central Interior. Near seasonal expectations are forecast elsewhere.

Temperature Anomalies

The cooler bias across the nation is expected to continue for the first half of this month and this is thanks to the persistent southerly flow over the eastern and southeast parts of the nation, being propelled along the northern face of high pressure and in combination with cloud drifting through the jet stream. Some moderation in the cooler weather over the southwest is possible towards the end of the run.

DATA - Refer to video for more information and the model comparison and context about all the forecast products you see from me.


00Z GFS - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 2 Weeks

More information in the video, so make sure you take a look at that for a broader understanding of the weather in the short and medium term. I will mention here again that the short-term forecast is carrying a high level of confidence but the medium term, very poor confidence and once we see the high-pressure system building over the Bight then we can more actively forecast with a degree of confidence the impacts on the southeast in terms of the southwest flow with showers and the wet weather developing along the west coast.

00Z GFS - Precipitable Water Values - Next 2 Weeks

I just want to point out that the short term carries a higher confidence in forecasting with a lot of moisture spreading through the eastern interior with the trough and jet stream. A series of cold fronts over the southeast states propelling a large amount of cold air northwards. The rest of the nation looking seasonal, but watching with interest the weather over in the west and north where moisture values are expected to increase throughout the short and medium term.

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to the video for more context and analysis

00Z CMC - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to the video for more context and analysis

00Z Euro - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 8 Days

Refer to the video for more context and analysis

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 2 Weeks

Refer to the video for more context and analysis

A closer look in - the modelling is of low confidence from next week away from the southeast states. This will change. More confidence builds into the forecast when we get the high-pressure system sitting over the Bight by Sunday.

More coming up from 8pm EST with a look at the models and rainfall.


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