SA - SHOWERS DECREASING TONIGHT BUT MORE RAIN IS TO COME FROM THURSDAY

The weather is moving at pace with a mobile pressure pattern allowing for further rainfall to spread across the nation from the northwest through to the southeast.


But timing is everything with regards to the moisture spreading throughout the country and how much moisture is ingested into cold fronts.


For now, we are seeing the last of the showery bands over the southeast and south tonight, and by the morning, with higher pressure nearby, we are likely to see more settled weather for the Eyre Peninsula and this spreads east through the day.


Over the far northwest, cloud increases during the day with areas of rain developing with moderate falls possible over the western APY Lands. This moisture begins to move south and east during Thursday and later in the day into Friday, there is a chance we see more widespread rainfall developing over the Ag Areas. The rainfall generally light for now but a few moderate falls cannot be ruled out, especially if more moisture diverts southwards into the frontal boundary.


Across the weekend, the showery weather will continue with a follow up front moving through Saturday with light to moderate rainfall. The cold southwesterly winds will continue, and this will lead to below average temperatures.


Next week, the north of the state should begin to dry out, though cloud is still expected to linger with the jet stream still about. With high pressure forecast to be present, this will likely suppress rainfall chances throughout the interior.


Let's take a look

FORECAST

Rainfall Next 10 Days

Rainfall is expected to be rather confined to the southern coast of the state for the coming 24hrs as we see a weak ridge pushing over the region and a new centre of high pressure developing over the state, but that high is on the way to the east. The next rainfall system though is not too far away, with a deepening moisture in feed being drawn into the next front, leading to a band of rain spreading throughout the interior and then meeting the front, leading to a broader band of cold rainfall moving through Ag Areas during later Thursday into Friday. The rainfall will clear to VIC and NSW during Friday afternoon with showers to follow for southern areas. Further showery weather is forecast for the Ag Areas this weekend with another cold front on the move through, this leading to more light follows up rain, possibly some moderate falls about the southeast. Conditions remaining damp into early next week but post the interior rainfall spreading through on Thursday, it should turn dry from the weekend for areas up the Stuart Highway from Port Augusta northwards.

Still some reasonable follow up rainfall for the southern Ag Areas but the intensity of the rainfall should be around seasonal values for June.

Frost Risk - Thursday Morning

The higher risk of frost on Wednesday and Thursday morning is over areas north of the Ag Areas but the heavier frosts are likely Thursday morning over NSW and VIC.

MEDIUM TERM

June 7th-14th 2022

Rainfall Anomalies

Rainfall chances leaning above average over northern Australia seems to be a reasonable forecast given the moisture content running through northern and northwest Australia and this landing through the jet stream, bringing the chance of showers and storms through the dry season. The rainfall may sink further south into the central interior of the nation. Most elsewhere, the indications are for seasonal rainfall opportunities, so not dry, but normal weather conditions for now. Parts of the east coast could see drier than normal weather if the westerly wind regime continues to hold firm.

Temperature Anomalies

The cooler than normal weather is coming up very strong on all models for interior parts, this could be due to cold air trapped under cloudy skies as the jet stream continues to unfold across the nation. Through the southwest and over the far north, conditions may be leaning towards seasonal. If there is a large-scale rainfall event, then we may see temperatures come down event further over the interior.

DATA - Refer to the video for further information and it is critical to keep check of the data sets to understand where the next major weather events are emerging from outside of this period.


00Z GFS - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 2 Weeks

The latest GFS shows that the cold outbreak is forecast to wind down in the coming 24hrs, though the colder weather will stick around for the next week or so over the nation as a whole with further cloud and showery weather on the way later this week and series of cold fronts for the southeast this weekend, as a slow moving high pressure system remains west and south of WA. Over in the southwest of the nation, the weather is expected to remain mostly fine and dry with near seasonal temperatures, but as you head inland, cloudy skies and patchy rainfall with moderate rainfall about will continue for central and northern inland areas and heavy rainfall with storms over the northern parts of the state is also possible. Weather conditions are forecast to wind down up there as well through the coming few days. Into the weekend, we will have showery weather over the southeast of the nation with onshore southwest winds and cold weather. A high that is slow to move east, will move to the Bight by early next week, opening the door for the next rainfall event to develop for WA. Some indication this evening that the GFS is falling into line with the Euro from this morning with the rainfall looking to move further south than east but will watch trends. The east coast enjoying the dry weather as is much of the northeastern inland.

00Z GFS - Precipitable Water Values - Next 2 Weeks

Moisture values coming way down in relation to the temperatures falling away with the southwest flow. Deeper moisture with more productive rainfall over the northwest of the nation continues but leading to a disruptive dry season. The weather is very much seasonal for the south despite the below average temperatures, rainfall is what you would expect to see. Moisture values are expected to remain elevated over the northern tropics which suggests to me that rainfall chances will increase for the north and east for the NT and QLD into the medium term.

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to the video for more context and analysis

00Z CMC - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to the video for more context and analysis

00Z Euro - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to the video for more context and analysis

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 2 Weeks

Refer to the video for more context and analysis

A closer look in - the rainfall is looking seasonal for the most part in the region, but I would be watching the medium term very closely as there is a lot of moisture rotating through WA, and the NT. That could be picked up and send rainfall numbers back up into the medium term.

More coming up from 8pm EST with a look at the models and rainfall, what is beyond this cold outbreak over the southeast and the rain event over the northwest? Do we see rainfall emerge elsewhere?



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