SA - SHOWERS DECREASING THURSDAY WITH A DRY WEEKEND ON THE WAY. FRONTS RETURN NEXT WEEK.

OVERVIEW

A few showers over the southeast and south tonight with an upper low may still produce light to moderate rainfall with that activity forecast to move east and north tomorrow as the upper low moves east into NSW.


A large scale high pressure system is expected to be close enough to the state to produce fine weather, though cloudy about the coast with possibly drizzle in the southeast.


Once the block in the east moves out to NZ from early next week with frontal weather increasing in coverage from the west and then this may bring back the better rainfall chances for Southern Ag Areas, even if light, it will be better than a poke in the eye.


SHORT TERM

As mentioned, not a great deal of rainfall is expected through the next week, thanks to ridging, dry air and stable weather, the main weather action is over the north and east of the nation.


With high pressure nearby, the weather is expected to remain stable and while boring and you may not be getting a lot of love in the videos in the short term, you will see the weather information picking up relating to the frontal weather on the approach through WA from early next week. This offers the chance of rainfall returning to southern parts of the state.


Remaining dry and settled for the interior with dry air and near seasonal temperatures. If there is moisture attached to the jet stream then larger bands of cloud is possible to cross the state from west to east.


LONG TERM

The frontal weather should resume over Southern Australia from next week, with the heavier impacts being felt over SWLD of WA through the back half of next week, with moderate rainfall possible with that feature, bringing an end to the dry spell for most areas.


The rainfall is expected to be widespread across the west of the nation until we see that spread further east to impact southern areas of SA and then into the southeast inland across VIC and maybe southern NSW. Moisture dependent, the rain bands may increase in coverage in future modelling so will be watching the Indian Ocean closely.


Otherwise the rest of the north and east of the nation is expected to clear with drier air surging northwards with high pressure coming in from the west.


AREAS TO WATCH

The focus of the weather shifts to the west of the nation next week, how much moisture can be drawn into the jet stream and will this bring back the wet weather back into the southern and southeastern parts of the nation breaking the drier spell of the recent week or two.


WEATHER VIDEO PM - WEDNESDAY 29TH JUNE 2022

FORECAST

Rainfall Next 10 Days

Not a whole lot expected through the coming few days with dry air and high pressure nearby. High pressure will then move over the state leading to drier weather continuing into next week with light winds and seasonal temperatures. Next week, the first cold front to bring back rainfall is expected to be over the southeast of the state where a weakening cold front will bring light rainfall from this time next week. A stronger cold front is expected to bring more rainfall across the south of the state with light to moderate rainfall during the weekend. An even stronger cold front is expected to approach from the following week as the axis of a long wave trough moves into the Bight. Can moisture get involved into these systems? That remains the question that will be unanswered for a few more days.

The bulk of rainfall with the upper trough tonight and tomorrow could see a few falls over 5mm. More showers expected from this time next week but favouring the southeast and southern coastal areas and adjacent inland. Lighter falls further inland you go.

A little further to the west, we need to see the area of drier and more stable air to start filling in with rainfall to see increasing rainfall chances for SA. That will come....just a question of when.

DATA - Refer to the video for further context and support for the short and medium term.


00Z GFS - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 2 Weeks

Refer to the video for further context. There is a lot of complexity and that is causing a lot of shifting around in the rainfall totals from run to run in the east. Find out more about what you may expect in the video at the top of the page. The overall trend for the west is quiet before the pattern flips next week.

00Z GFS - Precipitable Water Values - Next 2 Weeks

Moisture is largely unchanged from overnight and this morning, the deep moisture profile over the north and east will be full realised beyond the thick high cloud that has been covering large areas of the nation today, with a middle and lower-level deck of cloud likely to develop from tomorrow as a stronger forcing mechanism in the upper low meets the moisture, and then the ingredients combine to produce heavy rainfall potential for the east. The moisture will take a while to sweep out to the east but once it does, we will see the moisture return over western areas of the nation, chiefly in the south with frontal weather helping to bring back rainfall and more typical weather for this time of year after a dry spell. That moisture will reach the south and southeast later next week into the following weekend with follow up fronts to come over the south and west.

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to the video for more context and analysis

00Z CMC - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to the video for more context and analysis

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 2 Weeks

Refer to the video for more context and analysis

A closer look in - widespread rainfall is expected to form along the coast with torrential falls. The heavier rainfall will move around from run to run depending on what model you are using and this will be the case until tomorrow night. Stay close to the forecasts and advice moving forward. The rainfall eases next week over NSW but returns to the south and southeast from later next week into the weekend with frontal weather returning.

More coming up from 8pm EST with a look at the models and rainfall and there is lots to discuss.






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