SA - SHOWERS DECREASING OVER THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST MID WEEK THEN DRY FOR A WHILE.

ANALYSIS

The pattern is very reflective of early Winter with a large scale high pressure system passing through the Bight at a snails pace, leading to widespread cold showery weather over the southeast inland and coastal areas over the coming 2 days before we see some clearance. But for coastal areas the cloudy skies and below average temperatures are forecast to continue into the weekend before we see the sun return by Sunday. Over inland areas, an easy forecast, dry and cold with sunny skies developing, with the temperatures recovering only slowly through the coming week. No major rainfall event is forecast through this time and we will have to look into the longer term.


SHORT TERM

It is all about the high-pressure system in the Bight. It is helping to clear inland of the nation while driving the showery weather over coastal SA, with heavier rainfall over the those areas exposed to the southwesterly flow. The high will edge slowly through the week and the weather is not expected to change a whole lot throughout the week until the weekend when the high begins to move over the state. Showers may decrease, but the cold gloomy weather over coastal and Ag Areas will continue under this arrangement.


LONG TERM

The system over in WA is the next weather maker on the board which could bring some widespread falls across the south and southeast of the nation, when the frontal weather begins to capture that moisture, as per the climate drivers, this is forecast to happen from about mid-month onwards. So, from mid this week, many areas could go dry for about 10 days with rainfall remaining generally coastal. This is nothing to be alarmed about and is all part of the reset in the weather pattern which will lead to sunnier skies and warmer weather ahead of the next rainfall event probably from about 10 days from now.


AREAS TO WATCH

Not a whole lot to watch for us, but if you are watching, the weather system over in WA is of interest. If this starts to help propel moisture throughout the nation via the jet stream into the central and eastern inland this will lift up rainfall, chances ahead of frontal weather that I do think will start to increase in line with the negative SAM phase that is forecast to develop.


VIDEO - MONDAY 6TH JUNE 2022

FORECAST

Rainfall Next 10 Days

Rainfall rates as forecast last week contracting to coastal areas and many areas from mid-week should be mostly dry. The rainfall along the coastal areas will be mostly light and patchy through Tuesday and into Wednesday before the weather slowly contracts towards the southeast districts. The large high-pressure system will take a week to get here and so do not expect much in the way of large rain making systems until we get to mid-month onwards with the moisture and instability out of the west and north begins to approach, so this is quite normal to have large breaks under Winter high pressure.

Rainfall will gradually decrease in the coming days as we move towards the end of the week, with the rainfall chiefly coastal until Saturday and then clearing during the weekend with the passage of the high pressure system into early next week.

WEATHER ISSUES

Severe Weather Watch - Damaging Winds

The strong and gusty winds will continue about coastal areas with showery periods passing through and watching the front with interest rotating through the southwesterly flow. A band of gusty showers may move through during Tuesday

Farmers and Graziers - This Week

I think we will see conditions ease from the west mid-week and inland areas as well, then the remainder of the state will see the issues related to the cold weather contract into VIC.

Frost Risk - This Weekend

With the high pressure approaching from later this week and then moving over the state this weekend, frosts are likely to return, and more detailed charts will be issued as we get closer. The heavier frosts are forecast to form over inland areas and at elevation.

MEDIUM TERM

June 13th-20th 2022

Rainfall Anomalies

The drier signal continues for the southeast and eastern parts of NSW with a high sitting over the ACT. That high will move out of the region towards the end of the period. The west is where we find the higher chances of above average rainfall thanks to deep moisture being drawn out of the Indian Ocean and into the approaching long wave trough that will be slowed by the high-pressure block over the southeast.

Temperature Anomalies

The pattern flip is likely to take place mid-month with the slow moving high over the east starting to move further east, allowing warmer weather to move throughout the southern parts of the country. The eastern inland colder than normal thanks to cold air damming from the previous weather events, under a cold core stationary high. The weather over the north warmer that normal with humidity coming back.

DATA - Refer to the video for more details and charting.


00Z GFS - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 2 Weeks

Once again, refer to the video for more information on the daily break for the short and medium term.

00Z GFS - Precipitable Water Values - Next 2 Weeks

Moisture values are coming way down over the southeast, east and northern parts of the country as the colder air works northwards. More moisture is starting to develop and envelope the western parts of the country with a deep trough offshore pulling in moisture from Indonesia southwards.

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to the video for more context and analysis

00Z CMC - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to the video for more context and analysis

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 2 Weeks

Refer to the video for more context and analysis

A closer look in - a lot of the rainfall in the short term is expected to be about coastal areas over the southeast and east and what you see over the inland will likely fall in the medium term so bank that week of drier weather starting mid-week through to mid month as advertised.

More coming up from 8pm EST with a look at the models and rainfall, the question is, how long does the dry spell last for?


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