SA - SHOWERS DECREASING FOR COASTAL AREAS - DRY WEEKEND FOR MOST - BUT MORE SHOWERS NEXT WEEK SOUTH.

ANALYSIS

Showery weather over the southern parts of the state during the past week or so has resulted in many Ag Areas recording well above average rainfall for the period with some local areas of flash flooding reported in the Hills region and pockets of heavier rainfall also recorded through the arid areas with about 40mm at Leigh Creek keeping that above average rainfall forecast verified for inland areas thanks to the jet stream cloud bands.


The weather is set to settle down as we see more high pressure ridging through the state's interior and also over southern parts this weekend, showers decreasing. But it does look like the gap between systems is shrinking as the Southern Annular Mode turns negative, sending more cold fronts and westerly winds throughout the southern parts of the nation once again from next week.


The above average rainfall signals are marginal but at least we see widespread rainfall chances continuing on the back of widespread falls in the past week.


SHORT TERM

Shorter term weather looks to be dominated by the southwesterly winds and colder than normal weather over the state thanks to high pressure sitting west of the state. The high's position looks to be changing from run to run still with the colder surge of southwesterly winds continuing through the weekend, then easing through early next week.


Showers may persist about the southeast and southern coastal areas right through to Sunday but the bulk of the weather over inland areas looks to be dry and settled with lighter winds and the winds veering more into the northwest. That is in association with the approach of the next weather system over in WA.


LONG TERM

Widespread rainfall and cloud over in WA this weekend and into early next week may spill into the Bight, as a low-pressure system forms along a front as that tracks east towards the state.


Generally light rainfall is expected at this time from this time next week and through the remainder of next week for Southern Ag areas on the current guide, but that may change further as we head into the back of next week, a larger cloud band may egulf WA and then spread into SA, lifting the chance of widespread rainfall for the state later next week into the following weekend.


AREAS TO WATCH

Watching the moisture over in WA which may continue to spread south and east through the nation from next week with an increase of cloud and showery weather spreading throughout the country. The frontal weather may also begin to increase as we see the Southern Annular Mode tending more negative as we move through the back half of the month which may whip up colder and windier weather and those higher rainfall chances, especially if that moisture in WA can be drawn into frontal weather.


WEATHER VIDEO PM - TUESDAY 7TH JUNE 2022

FORECAST

Rainfall Next 10 Days

The rainfall coverage is spreading through the southeast parts of the state into the end of the week and possibly into the weekend. There may be a few lighter falls extend back west and northwest over the coastal areas of the EP, YP and near Adelaide but points north of here, dry for a while, through the weekend and into early next week is a fair bet with cloudy periods. The next major rainfall maker is back over in WA, on the other side of the ridge, it will move closer, but it comes down to the speed of the high-pressure ridge progressing eastwards, that will determine the rainfall spread across the state next week. We have a weak low-pressure system and a front forecast to move through the southern parts of the state with light rainfall generally. A stronger rainfall event may approach from just outside of this period which may see a wet and windy end to the month.

Noting the rainfall is coming down but I won't clear it away from the southern third of the state with the potential for further showery weather possibly developing next week with the next wave of westerly winds and moisture out of WA. I do think the numbers will creep up by the end of the week.

Farmers and Graziers - Remainder of the Week

The cold southwesterly winds are forecast to moderate throughout the coming week, with the high risk to stock contracting further south into VIC and SA as the high approaches. Conditions throughout should return to seasonal by late in the weekend.

Frost Watch - This Weekend

The risk area remains large, but it will be refined as we get a better idea on how the high-pressure ridge behaves as it approaches from the weekend, which looks to not sit over the region as long as what was being forecast yesterday.

DATA - Refer to the video for further information and the daily breakdown to cut down on the reading below.


00Z GFS - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 2 Weeks

Refer to video for more information on the short- and medium-term outlook as that will give you the best idea and context behind the model data.

00Z GFS - Precipitable Water Values - Next 2 Weeks

The moisture values are still running well below average for the east but that is conjunction with very cold air. The colder drier air is surging through northwards to the deep tropics over the course of the week. The opposite can be said for areas over the west and northwest of the nation where further moisture is expected to increase and spill across the nation via the jet stream next week and into the following weekend, which may be the start of the next rainfall for southern and eastern Australia. The moisture values running through the westerly wind belt in the medium term are too high to have such low rainfall projections for southern Australia so expect this to change.

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to the video for more context and analysis

00Z CMC - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to the video for more context and analysis

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 2 Weeks

Refer to the video for more context and analysis

A closer look in - it may be looking the driest it has all year for many over northern interior parts of the southeast but do be rest assured that this will change, so enjoy the drier period and make the most of it as it will change.

More coming up from 8pm EST with a look at the models and rainfall, I will only share information that is in reasonable agreement as too much is too confusing and I only want to share what is plausible at this time, so stay tuned for that.

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