SA - SHOWERS CONTRACTING TO THE COAST - DRY BUT COOL INLAND THURSDAY

ANALYSIS

A slow process in the clearing over SA today with the showers and drizzle over the southern coastal areas gradually contracting to the southeast districts tonight. Rainfall totals under the southwesterly flow which is weakening, is forecast to remain light and stay that way through 3 days.


Over inland areas of the state, widespread morning frost is expected to develop with still conditions and cold air trapped under ridging leading to the frosty mornings, but lovely sunny days.


SHORT TERM

Widespread showers and low clouds over coastal areas and the southeast will continue to keep the temperatures below average with light falls to persist through to the weekend. Some clearance is likely from about Sunday throughout southern areas as the winds veer into the west and northwest. The ridge is forecast to move through SA and into NSW and this is where we start to see warmer weather developing.


A weakening cold front is forecast to move through the Bight next Tuesday bringing the chance of light showers and high cloud and windy weather, this system may help to knock out the high over the east, opening the door to more frontal weather from the west.


LONG TERM

A series of strong cold fronts over in WA is expected to bring widespread showers and windy weather there for much of next week and cloud bands on the northern flank of these cold fronts offer the next best chance of follow up rainfall for the southeast states with colder weather returning.


There is a low chance of severe weather and above average rainfall but follow up rainfall yes.


AREAS TO WATCH

The Indian Ocean moisture coupled with the frontal weather passing through the westerly wind belt is forecast to lead to higher rainfall chances as mentioned above. The SAM is forecast to be negative through the coming 10 days which is likely to lead to more frontal weather emerging through the westerly wind belt, thus increasing rainfall for the back half of the month on the current guide.


WEATHER VIDEO PM - WEDNESDAY 8TH JUNE 2022

FORECAST

Rainfall Next 10 Days

The rainfall is expected to be mainly coastal over the coming week to possibly 10 days, with frontal weather over southeast areas clipping the region with further scattered light showers and drizzle and thick low cloud. Drier weather over the interior as mentioned with ridging and dry air will keep rainfall at bay for at least the next week. A dry Sunday and holiday Monday is expected before we see the next weakening cold front approaching the state from the west. This will bring scattered showers and low cloud and windy weather. The next strong cold front is forecast to move through the west of the state from Wednesday or Thursday with that likely to bring showers to the coast. Some chance that moisture may be drawn into this front but whether it survives the ridge and brings areas of light rain to inland areas remains to be seen. The better rainfall prospects are on the third system moving through from the west later next week with a band of light to moderate rainfall and from there, a shift to showery windy weather is likely.

The rainfall is drawn out with light showers over coastal areas in the coming 3 days. Scattered showers return with mainly light falls developing from mid to late next week for southern Ag Areas.

Frost Risk - Monday to Wednesday Next Week

A delayed forecast to the risk of widespread frost, some possibly severe. The ridge of high pressure is now expected to form over the southeast inland from Sunday and this will allow temperatures to fall below -5C in parts of NSW and down to -2C in pockets of elevated QLD, eastern SA and northern VIC.

MEDIUM TERM

June 15th-22nd 2022

Rainfall Anomalies

The drier weather is expected to continue over the northern and eastern areas of the nation thanks to the presence of high pressure leading to settled weather. The west is looking wetter with the position of the moisture and the cold fronts combining together to bring the higher rainfall chances.

Temperature Anomalies

Warmer days are on the way as promised and it will take place once we see the high move into the Tasman Sea with a northwest flow dominating the nation, that will be in response to the rise of the westerly wind belt. So drier weather then warmer weather developing ahead of the cold fronts bringing colder shift towards the end of the month.

DATA - Refer to the video for further information on the daily breakdown.


00Z GFS - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 2 Weeks

As mentioned, head to the video to track the daily breakdown through the short and medium term to cut down reading time.

00Z GFS - Precipitable Water Values - Next 2 Weeks

The big item on the board tonight is the influence of all that high moisture loads in the Indian Ocean and the waters north of the nation as well, being drawn into the next wave of frontal weather coming through the south and west of the country in the medium term. That will be chopping and changing from run to run, but ultimately that is your next weather maker on the board for the country as a whole. In the west in the short term, large moisture content involved with the trough will lead to widespread showers and thunderstorms over the days ahead.

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to the video for more context and analysis

00Z CMC - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to the video for more context and analysis

00z Euro - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to video for more information and analysis

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 2 Weeks

Refer to the video for more context and analysis

A closer look in - as I have been stating for days, the weather modelling would be turning wetter over the south and southeast with the developing moisture load interacting with the strengthening negative SAM phase. These numbers will bounce around, but we now have a window of dry weather so make the most of it. In the short term, the next week will see rainfall over coastal areas of the state.

More coming up from 8pm EST with a look at the models and rainfall.

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