SA - SHOWERS CONTINUE FOR THE SOUTH TONIGHT, MORE COMING THIS WEEKEND WITH MODERATE FALLS POSSIBLE.

ANALYSIS

Showers have increased today about the southern areas of the state bringing an end to the relatively short dry spell for the Agricultural Areas. But further showery bands with local thunder wrapping around a low pressure system to the south of Kangaroo Island continues to feed over the southern EP, YP and approaching the Adelaide Hills and SE Districts overnight and into Wednesday.


The showers and moderate rainfall totals for coastal areas and lighter falls further north of Adelaide will begin to contract to the southeast later on Wednesday with a drier period developing for Thursday and Friday.


A stronger system is expected to move towards the state from Saturday, with some modelling indicating further moderate rainfall developing.


SHORT TERM

The forecast is easy to remember in relation to where you are located. The closer you are to the coast this week, the wetter you will be for the period, and the further north you go, the drier you will be.


As mentioned above, we have a system tonight and Wednesday which will clear east later Wednesday into Thursday ahead of another stronger system approaching during Saturday and passing through Sunday into early next week.


LONG TERM

The longer term offers more frontal weather for the southern parts of the nation, and once again some of this could start to glance the eastern inland of the country. An upper trough could also move through central parts of the country mid to late next week, and if this does happen, we are likely to see a widespread band of cloud developing over the northern and eastern parts of the nation leading to more widespread rainfall chances for NSW and QLD.


With the frontal weather continuing to be the main driver for wet weather across the country, the door may be open for an upper trough moving through the interior.


AREAS TO WATCH

The upper trough that may move through the central and eastern interior throughout the middle to latter part of next week could bring about a decent slab of moisture in from the northern and northwest of the nation leading to a better chance of rainfall for inland areas, which may connect with frontal weather over the southeast.


With the SAM remaining negative and strongly negative, the frontal weather is expected to become much more vigorous and stronger as we go through towards the end of the month.


WEATHER VIDEO PM - TUESDAY 13TH JUNE 2022

FORECAST

Rainfall Next 10 Days

Rainfall has commenced over the southern areas of the EP, YP and approaching the SE Districts tonight and persisting into Wednesday. Some of the bands of rainfall on the northern flank of the low near Kangaroo Island to the YP through to the southeast of the state may be heavy but they will taper off the further inland you go. The rainfall eases during Thursday and mostly clears for the state for the end of the week in a northerly flow. Another stronger front approaches from the weekend into next week leads to widespread showers and thunderstorms returning with the chance of further moderate to heavy rainfall possible about Southern Agricultural Areas. This system has been modelled poorly and will continue to evolve in the days ahead so stay close to the forecasts but overall the pattern looking more representative of the negative SAM that is in place.

The rainfall across the Southern Agricultural Areas is at seasonal values and will follow the decent rainfall break we saw about a fortnight ago. So, this is keeping things ticking over. Better rainfall odds found over the southern areas exposed to the westerly wind regime.

MEDIUM TERM

June 21st-278h 2022

Rainfall Anomalies

White means seasonal expectations at this stage across the nation with poor signals at the moment for a drier or wetter bias compared to what is seasonally expected at this time.

There may be that drier bias developing across parts of inland NSW with the negative SAM phase in place leading to drier than normal weather spreading throughout.

Temperature Anomalies

Temperatures are forecast to remain above average over the northern and central parts of the nation with a northwest flow with drier air still expected to feature over the northern parts of the nation, which is efficiently heated at this time of year. Generally seasonal weather expected most elsewhere with poor signals for either warmer or colder weather across the east and west.

DATA -More information in the video to bring the below charts and data sets to life and also to bring context and moderation to your expectations.


00Z GFS - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 2 Weeks

I will note that we are finally starting to see the moisture passing through from northern Australia into the east and southeast as expected with an upper trough coming in from the west. This will chop and change but that idea of rainfall returning large areas of the inland born out of the higher moisture loads north of the NT and QLD is one that is gaining traction. See how it pans out.

00Z GFS - Precipitable Water Values - Next 2 Weeks

Deeper moisture still sits over in the west of the nation with the higher chance of rainfall found there for much of the period, but moisture values have crept up over the southern parts of SA and that is moving into VIC and southern NSW in the coming days. There may be some deeper moisture that emerges with a stronger front passing through western parts of the nation from later this week that travels to the east next week and lingers. Watching the medium term with the moisture surging southwards on this particular run over QLD, NSW and VIC. But will have more on that in the rainfall update later this evening.

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to the video for more context and analysis

00Z CMC - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to the video for more context and analysis

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 2 Weeks

Refer to the video for more context and analysis

A closer look in - I discuss this further in the video but the bulk of what you see here over the interior falls in the medium term, in the shorter term, rainfall is focussed over much of southern SA, VIC and southern and central NSW and the ACT and points west. Essentially dry over the northern inland of NSW but maybe some showers on the east coast this weekend.

More coming up from 8pm EST with a look at the models and rainfall, see you then.

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