There has been significant showery weather further east of the state today, in the east we have been subject to drizzle and light showers over the Ag areas with a southerly flow. The weather over the inland has returned dry and stable. The weather continues to dry out as we move into Friday.
A weakening trough coming in from the west is expected to drive showers and gusty conditions this weekend for the Eyre Peninsula from Saturday and for the remainder of southern coastal areas into Sunday as the system slides southeast.
Another front will follow this system on Monday but what about the chances of more widespread rainfall developing with a low in about a week?
Rainfall for the next 10 days
It has largely dried out now for much of the state, with only the chance of a few showers during Friday in the far southeast with a southerly flow, otherwise it is clearing and remaining cool. The next batch of rainfall is expected to sweep in from the west during Saturday afternoon and then spread east and southeast with the trough sliding off towards Tasmania. A stronger system is expected to pass through the state Monday with a few showers and windy weather. Perhaps some inland showers developing in about a week or so, with a trough developing over inland areas of the NT and extending south.
Euro 00z - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 10 Days
The pressure pattern is still dominated by the low pressure system over the southeast driving the severe weather over the coming 36hrs. Another large cold front will come through the southwest of WA bringing widespread rain and storms through the region with moderate rainfall and gusty winds on Friday with the showery weather to continue through to the weekend. The change will race through the southern states with gusty winds and showers over the weekend into the southeast by Sunday afternoon and follow up waves of low pressure likely to keep the showery weather going for much of next week. The most widespread rainfall looks to be mid to late next week with another low pressure system with the potential for moderate falls. That system unlikely to bring severe weather. The north is hot and humid with pop up showers and storms which may begin to increase in coverage during the middle of next week. It looks cooler than average across southern Australia next week.
Euro 00z - Precipitable Water Anomalies - Next 10 Days
Moisture is deep and extensive over the south and east and also through southern Australia back into the west with another surge of moisture. We were dominated by dry air last week, this is what the pattern flip looks like. Next week, we see the tussle between the dry and moist air with a wavy flow pattern underway. Each system coming through southern Australia will have the potential to bring spring showers, you can see the most widespread moisture again is early in the period and mid next week, and note how it rotates around the north of the nation and then southeast into the jet stream.
The moisture watch chart shows this and the model spread.
Euro 00z - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days
Rainfall is quite extensive over the east over the coming 36hrs and the SWLD during the coming 36hrs with two low pressure systems in full control. The north is unsettled with a few showers and storms through this week, with again mixed odds in the modelling, does the moisture come south or east or does it stay contained over northern Australia? This will impact rainfall chances and amounts over the south and east as we move through the coming 10 days. I suspect that next week could turn wetter than what it is leading onto at this time.
A closer look in
GFS 00Z - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 16 Days
You can find more information in the video blog above.
I will have more from 7am tomorrow - I will renew the regional charts in terms of rainfall and the model watch and rainfall once this system in the east is off the board.