After a brutally cold weekend with high winds and scattered squally storms, the weather is improving today with a weak ridge moving through. The showers have largely returned to the coastal areas in the southeast as winds have veered into the northwest.
The flow is expected to become gusty and a lot warmer from the northwest during Tuesday ahead of a weakening cold front, that will bring rainfall to the EP, YP and the southeast districts, but not huge rainfall totals. It will be windy with the chance of damaging wind gusts over the coastal areas.
A stronger system arrives during Thursday and that has the chance of producing more widespread rainfall but another round of gusty winds with damaging wind gusts. Rainfall may become a little more widespread as the system begins to slow down and be lifted by an upper trough over inland areas as well as responding to the tight thermal gradient that is set up over the eastern and southern inland of the nation.
That will lead into a showery weekend for the coast with some windy weather but not as severe as this last weekend's weather.
Lets look at modelling
12Z GFS Surface Pressure Pattern for the coming 16 days
The pressure pattern remains unchanged from previous modelling over the course of the past few days. The only difference is that we are seeing the wind bearing a little more northwesterly and the fronts are now sliding along that downstream flow, so the intensity of the weather will not be as high impact. We will see damaging wind gusts with the fronts as they pass through Tuesday and again later this week. Rainfall won't be as heavy for inland areas as last week but those areas exposed to the westerly flow will see the best of it again, over southeast SA and the hills near Adelaide. But not as wet and not as cold this week. Next week, the pattern trends somewhat drier, with still a few fronts in the mix but they are drifting further south as high pressure takes over. Some areas in the north and northeast will hit 30C this week so that is a sign of what is to come in a few weeks time, warmer weather!
12z GFS Rainfall for the coming 10 days
Rainfall again lighter compared to the last few weeks but it will still accumulate along the coastal areas with the fronts rolling through. Inland moisture will increase with the fronts on Wednesday and Friday likely to bring the most widespread falls this week, but a lot lighter. Most areas less than 10mm for the week adjacent to the coast. Next week the falls may be reduced further as we see high pressure shift the frontal passages southwards. But there could be moisture lurking through the inland and the models are diverging on how to handle that today. But there are signals that pattern flip will be on during early August.
12z Euro Surface Pressure Pattern for the coming 10 days
Very similar model spread in the Euro for the coming 5 days so that is locked in. We just have to watch the rainfall associated on Wednesday and Friday. Then the high pressure system is likely to drift further south, possibly pushing the frontal weather south of the state with the southeast areas of SA likely to get the lighter falls while most of the state trends drier. But again this forecast becomes low confidence with the models diverging from about day 5-7 onwards.
12z Euro Rainfall for the coming 10 days
The rainfall as a result for those wanting a lot more, will be strictly coastal and at this stage the rainfall is lighter for the coming 10 days. But there will be some light to moderate follow up for coastal areas and the EP,YP and Southeast Districts and maybe lighter falls for the Riverlands and Murraylands. The weather expected to slowly shift away from this westerly wind barrage during the coming 10 days as the signal pings high pressure eventually winning out.
Rainfall for the next 10 days
Rainfall is largely unchanged for the period though I have brought down rainfall a bit with the frontal boundaries not as far north and not passing through with such gusto. That will lead to lighter falls. There will be two cloud bands to watch this week bringing falls further inland but otherwise those areas exposed to the westerly wind belt will be the wettest, especially the southeast of the state where the showers will be most extensive in the northwest to the westerly flow. There should be a rainfall chance there most days over the coming 7-10 days as the westerly wind belt continues to slowly contract southwards.
More weather details to come on the moisture over the northwest and the pattern flip that is being touted by the models, possibly bringing that much warmer and drier shift for a period before more rainfall returns mid month.