SA - SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING FOR NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS BEFORE SPREADING EAST.

The weather is turning warmer and more humid over northern and western areas of the state today, with the risk of thunderstorms breaking out this evening and once again during Tuesday afternoon.


As mentioned through the months of forecasting, outback flooding is a concern through this Spring and flood watches are in place for northern, central and eastern parts of the nation including much of northern SA. Agricultural areas may need to watch the heavy rainfall shield during Wednesday afternoon.


Then the weather begins to dry out from the west from Thursday with a cooler southerly flow developing and that will shift the humidity out of the state but bring below average temperatures.


The weather next week does warm up nicely and again the humidity will return from the northwest mid next week with showers and thunderstorms redeveloping near a trough passing into the state from WA.


Lets take a look

FORECAST

Rainfall Next 10 Days

Rainfall is expected to become heavy and widespread over northern and western areas from mid week and then extend across the state from later Wednesday into Thursday with a deep low moving eastwards. This system is expected to bring widespread above average rainfall and thunderstorm activity. However once the low pressure moves through the state, the air will turn drier with a southerly flow drying out the atmosphere and we will see a much more settled spell. The next batch of moisture will begin to move into WA from next week and this is expected to be lifted by a trough and this trough may introduce more rain and storms from mid next week.


A closer look at the Ag Areas

Thunderstorm Forecast Tuesday

Thunderstorms are expected to fire during Tuesday afternoon through northern and western areas of the state with damaging winds and heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding a concern the closer you are to the WA and NT borders. The thunderstorm activity will remain in this region with the upper level winds pushing the storms northeast.

Flash Flood Risk Tuesday

Heavy rainfall rates in response to a deeper layer of moisture is expected to lead to a higher risk of flash flooding for areas closer to the northwest border with the NT/WA. The risk of flash flooding spreads south and east during mid week.

Damaging Winds Risk Tuesday

The strongest storms that form also carry a moderate chance of damaging winds through the outback regions with winds likely to reach near 100km/h with the strongest storms.

DATA - You can find more details in the video at the top of the page.


GFS 00z - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 16 Days

The weather turns humid and unsettled once again in about 9-10 days time for much of the nation so only a small window of dry weather expected.

GFS 00z - Precipitable Water Anomalies - Next 16 Days

GFS 00z - Precipitable Water Values - Next 16 Days

Moisture returns in about 10 days time with a trough lifting the weather into showers and storms once again.

GFS 00z - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 16 Days

More weather coming your way at 9pm tonight with a wrap of all things rainfall.


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