The rain and thunderstorm activity over the far west today has evolved into a narrow band of rainfall as mentioned and now seeing that set up camp from northwest to southeast through the northern EP into the Flinders and bypassing much of the southern Ag areas this time around. Fine weather may remain in place for much of the weekend over the southeast and southern coastline and about the far north.

In between scattered showers and thunderstorms amongst thick cloud cover will run through from northwest to southeast training over the same region delivering moderate to heavy rainfall. But the rainfall band is narrow.

The wet weather moves out of the state Sunday with most areas turning dry and milder. Winds veer into the east or southeast with the chance of thundery showers redeveloping over northern and eastern areas from mid next week and possibly with a weakening pressure trough from as early as Monday or Tuesday with that feature washing out over the state.

Lets take a look


Rainfall Next 10 Days

Rainfall as mentioned exists under a broad cloud band but is narrow area of rainfall. This area of rain will remain narrow and contract eastwards into NSW during the weekend. Showers and thunderstorms will develop along the backside of the trough and low pressure system on Saturday over central inland areas before that moves on during Sunday. The weather remaining mostly dry for southern areas during the next 4-5 days however the humidity will increase once again with a few showers and thunderstorms for northern and eastern areas. If the winds turn more easterly then more unstable air will likely develop. The winds more southeast to southerly, the more stable the airmass so that will be something to watch.

Thunderstorm Forecast Saturday

Thunderstorms are ongoing under a cloud band with areas of rain tonight and this will continue during Saturday with mainly moderate falls and gusty winds at this time.


00Z GFS - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 16 Days

The pattern is very dynamic - more details can be found in the video to cut down read time.

00Z GFS - Precipitable Water Anomalies - Next 16 Days

The humidity is deeper as we go through this period and will lead to widespread rainfall and thunderstorms. Flood risks increase this weekend and goes hand in hand with the moisture deepening over the northern and eastern parts of the nation

00Z GFS - Precipitable Water Values - Next 16 Days

The values consistently around the 30-50mm values indicates a prolonged period of above average rainfall and high humidity for the east. Southern and southeast areas may get a break but now we are seeing moisture surging into WA as well with above average rainfall chances.

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 16 Days

Refer to video for more

A closer look in - the low confidence rainfall forecasts continue due to the complex and dynamic flow.

More details on all things rainfall after 9pm EDT tonight. Stay weather aware.

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