Showers about southern parts of South Australia tonight will clear, as the winds turn into the northwest and clear be showers offshore. That will be thanks to a high pressure system that is coming in from the north and west pushing the frontal weather out to the southeast.
During Thursday and Friday the weather will be dominated by high pressure bringing settled conditions and plenty of sunshine through parts of inland SA, a few showers are still possible about southeastern districts with a northwesterly flow, however conditions will be greatly improved from the high winds and showery weather we've had in the last 36 hours.
During Friday a strong cold front will start to approach the Bight region, that will bring a northwesterly wind back across the state, that wind profile could reach gale force through the afternoon and send temperatures well above average throughout the western and central parts of the state.
The warmer than average temperatures will reach Adelaide and the surrounds during Saturday ahead of the front which will bring a few showers and a gusty westerly change throughout the day. The rainfall mostly light, I expect the rainfall to peak further east through Victoria and New South Wales.
By Sunday the weather starts to clear up through the afternoon as a westerly wind eases though a few showers are still impact coastal areas of southeast South Australia and winds will still remain fresh and gusty about coastal areas. The inland returns dry
Monday another front approaches the region with gusty northwesterly winds again reaching gale force at times, not as warm as the Saturday event with the heat peaking over the eastern in land ahead of this system. The front likely to bring a band of showers maybe a thunderstorm and a gusty colder westerly change to follow.
Tuesday and Wednesday next week the winds will start to ease as high pressure starts to dig in from the north, so a few showers still expected about the southeast districts through Adelaide and about the Yorke Peninsula and Eyre Peninsula throughout mid week but that weather should start to clear.
Let's have a look at modelling
00Z GFS Surface Pressure Pattern for the coming 16 days
The latest GFS continues to push through frontal boundaries throughout the next 10 days however the frontal frequency and intensity looks to wind down a fraction as we get to this time next week as high pressure starts to build from the northwest. There is a pattern flip developing at the end of the first week of August, that will lead into a different looking pressure pattern most likely for mid-August. Despite the GFS still showing frontal weather right through its entire run, I am of the belief that the westerly wind belt will retreat further south during the second week of August, opening the door for more widespread inland rainfall to emerge, thanks to moisture streaming in via the jet stream from the north
00z GFS Rainfall for the coming 10 days
Rainfall is largely unchanged in this evening's run on the GFS with the rainfall connected again to the westerly wind regime that is expected to continue for the next five days. The rainfall may increase again early next week with another front pushing through there is some suggestions it could link up with moisture to produce another rain band through the southern and eastern areas, bypassing SA.
00z Euro Surface Pressure Pattern for the coming 10 days
The evening euro pattern is somewhat different to the GFS in the second half of the outlook. The first five days fairly similar with two significant frontal passages through South Australia however the most rainfall is expected to fall probably to the east and southeast of the state, I am still drawing in reasonable rainfall for the southern part of the state at the moment just in case the modelling decides to shift that rainfall west. The fast flow patterns are very tricky to pin down. Next week we still have this pattern flip on the card with a high-pressure system settling in throughout much of the state so we will see the westerly winds dive south and more settled mild conditions with sunny skies to persist. Keep an eye on that moisture that he's lurking off the northwest and overland about the Kimberly, that may produce some interest for rainfall back through inland areas from mid-August.
00z Euro Rainfall for the coming 10 days
Rainfall again largely unchanged for the coming five days with coastal areas doing the best but keep an eye on the moisture sitting up off the northwest and over the Kimberly throughout the second half of the outlook. If that can hook into a front coming out of WA, we may be seeing more inland rainfall developing.
00z Euro Precipitable Water for the coming 10 days
The sequence that plays out over the west of the nation at the end of the first week of August and into the second week of August is the pattern flip I have been talking about, now it won't look quite like this but notice the high pressure is the dominant force for a number of days later in the outlook, which is enough to shift conditions.
Rainfall for the next 10 days
Rainfall is shifting further south as the westerly wind begins to move further south and the frontal frequency begins to decrease Still two fronts in the next 5 days could bring some decent coastal falls, but I will reduce rainfall further tomorrow if the event looks to peak further east, so watch this space. High pressure over the state is expected to dry the inland from early next week, and statewide later in the outlook.
More weather to come.