And high end severe thunderstorms are possible overnight and during Thursday through mainly outback areas, where it is sparsely populated, however impacts to pastoralists in these regions could be quite elevated so be weather aware.
A deepening low tomorrow through western areas will begin it's eastwards journey to the southeast and bring a batch of rain and thunderstorms through the Ag areas later and then into the east early Friday before conditions clear from the west.
The heavy rainfall shield is very hard to predict so if you are living through the Eyre Peninsula and through the Mid North and Flinders you must pay attention to the forecasts as they could change dramatically in the coming 12 hours. You could end up with 5-75mm of rainfall it is the nature of this system.
Remaining Ag areas may see just light falls with the system moving east before adopting a southeast track into NSW.
Then it is cold and showery with a high risk of lamb losses and weather related impacts to other stock in the prolonged cold weather.
Lets take a look
Rainfall Next 10 Days
Rainfall is scattered but heavy at times over SA this afternoon and evening with showers and thunderstorms, but a more organised area of rainfall is likely to develop with a low deepening over the northwest of the state. Near and south/east of the low is where you will find the heavy rainfall but the system is compact so the rainfall will remain close to the centre of circulation. The system clears eastwards but onshore southerly winds will mean widespread showers develop for the southeast areas that may miss out the wet weather with the first feature. A follow up cold front is expected to pass through the southwest flow over the weekend bringing more showers to the southern Ag areas before clearance early next week. More showers may develop later next week. So there is rainfall in this current event and in another event at the end of the run. Refer to data for more.
Riverlands and Murraylands
Thunderstorm Forecast Thursday
Thunderstorms are likely to be ongoing from Wednesday night especially on and east of a trough and low pressure system moving steadily eastwards through the day. All modes of severe weather possible during the day but the focus is shifting eastwards with the low so once you get that colder drier southerly, the severe weather ends. The far southeast and south should stay storm free.
Flash Flood Risk Thursday
Heavy rainfall observed over the deserts to the north and northwest has resulted in pockets of flooding and further rainfall and thunderstorms will exacerbate the risk inland. Flash flooding is a very high chance for the northern half of the state under such conditions and will extend south very close to the northern Ag areas later in the day as the low moves through the region if rainfall becomes heavy and persistent
Damaging Winds Risk Thursday
Mainly associated with thunderstorms over the east with the warmer and more unstable airmass triggering discrete thunderstorms. There may be strong to gale force gradient winds around the deep low over the northwest of the state and with the passage of the low through the northern Ag areas.
Large Hail Risk Thursday
A low chance of large hail through the eastern areas on Thursday but the risk will move eastwards during the evening.
Tornado Risk Wednesday PM
Tornados are a low to moderate risk with the larger thunderstorms closer to the low pressures system emerging from WA during this evening and into Thursday.
Riverine Flood Risk
There will be high amounts of water still about once the system is on by through the weekend over the deserts and north.
Farmers and Graziers Thursday
A deep low driving strong winds and heavy rainfall will bring about a moderate risk of risk to stock, especially as the winds veer into the south and colder weather develops over wet stock.
Farmers and Graziers Friday through Monday
Main risk of coldest impacts will likely be over southeast areas during the weekend with a strong southwest flow and a cold front on Sunday.
DATA - Analysis can be found in the video at the top.
GFS 00Z - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 16 Days
GFS 00Z - Precipitable Water Anomalies - Next 16 Days
GFS 00Z - Precipitable Water Values - Next 16 Days
GFS 00Z - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 16 Days
A closer look in - there are two events beyond this current system and so therefore your number may be eclipsed in the first system alone with thunderstorms. The wet pattern continues.
More details on all things rainfall and models coming up after 9pm EDT