SA - SEVERE WEATHER CONTINUES WITH THE INTENSE RAINFALL CONTRACTING NORTH AND EAST.

A wild few days of rainfall and thunderstorm activity continues tonight and will be back tomorrow for areas from the Mid North through the Flinders and up into the Northeast areas. There could be some totals once again exceeding 100mm with thunderstorms given the slack pressure pattern.


Scattered showers will develop in the broad trough again with some of those quite heavy and tropical with 20-30mm out of those not impossible in quick time. We have taken the atmosphere from Darwin and placed it over SA. That is what we are dealing with and have been for some time and the forecasts here have verified quite well.


The next wave of more organised severe weather will approach from Tuesday and Wednesday as the trough deepens and we see a low form on the trough. Another round of heavy rain and thunderstorms, some places getting 50mm not out of the question through southern, central and eastern areas. The northern inland towards the NT will remain where the intense rainfall continues, daily falls of 100mm possible for much of this week.


Finally, by the weekend we may start to see the humidity contract north out of the Agricultural areas but for the northern areas, the heavy rainfall and thunderstorm threat looms with the monsoon ongoing up north and moisture from that feeding into troughs nearby.


Lets take a look

FORECAST

Rainfall Next 10 Days

Intense rainfall will become more concentrated north and east of the Agricultural Areas during Monday with the trough opening up and broadening. That will mean the coverage of thunderstorms becomes more scattered but where they form, the rainfall will remain heavy. But as we have seen, rainfall distribution being of a tropical nature, means it is highly variable so drawing a guide is the best way to handle that. The showers and thunderstorms will increase on Wednesday ahead and with a trough passing through. Some heavy falls are once again likely with this feature. It will then contract east into VIC and NSW as a new high flushes some of that humidity out to the north. Heavy rainfall and a flood risk remains for northern areas through the weekend.

Thunderstorm Forecast Monday

Thunderstorms will be back once again during Monday, and they are likely turning severe through the northern Ag areas and into the northeast of the state. Heavy falls leading to flash flooding the main issues, and strong gusty winds. But the rainfall rates may be intense once again in some areas causing further flood problems.

Flash Flood Risk Remainder of tonight and into Monday

Significant flooding has been observed in many areas over the past 3 days and will continue to be the case during Monday in the area identified. It does not need to rain hard at your property for flash flooding to sweep through.

Severe Weather Watch Wednesday through Friday.

Another round of strong to severe storms likely to develop from Tuesday and Wednesday for southern areas before contracting eastwards into VIC and NSW. However over northern areas, the trough remains near stationary ontop the high leaving the very high moisture in place, so further torrential rainfall and flooding is possible over northern areas into the weekend.

DATA - More analysis in the video.


00Z GFS - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 16 Days

Not much to add from the video other than disregard that system over the southeast in the medium term, the model will likely remove that in the next run. What it is suggesting is that the weather is expected to remain unsettled for northern and eastern areas of the nation with a strengthening monsoon. The weather in the west remains hot and dry, that carries a high confidence. As we enter February, we should begin to feel the impacts of that peaking La Nina which it is in the process of doing.

00Z GFS - Precipitable Water Values - Next 16 Days

A very rich environment for productive rainfall, of record proportions for some areas. We have seen that occur in many parts of SA and do not think that cannot be replicated again off the back of what we are seeing on the synoptic scale in combination with the near record moisture values.

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to video for further information

00Z CMC - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to video for further information

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 16 Days

Refer to video for further information

A closer look in - looking at the synoptic scale, the rainfall totals will bounce around a lot and with thunderstorms in the mix in the very high moisture levels, rainfall totals will exceed what is shown here in many areas. This is in addition to what has fallen and areas over the far north need to watch trends carefully.

More weather coming up tonight on all things rainfall and the models for the week ahead. Take care in the wild weather across parts this evening.






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