The tricky forecasting pattern for those near the Goyder's Line is nothing unsual and we will see that play out during the coming days. Severe thunderstorms have been roaring through the outback areas away from many built up areas but certainly packing a punch.

The severe weather risks however will start to drift south and east during Wednesday with a deep low moving southeast through the state, moving onwards towards NSW.

The deep moisture profile over northern areas is likely to skirt through central areas of the state and may bypass much of the southeast and southern Ag areas, but northern areas through the EP, Flinders and Mid North need to pay attention to this feature as there could be some heavy rain and gales tomorrow night.

The feature moves to the east and finally, the heavy rainfall and severe weather risk ends during Thursday afternoon into Friday with a colder direr southerly flow moving in.

There may be a few showers across the weekend for southeast areas but the bulk of the state shall remain dry from the weekend into early next week with high pressure moving in.

The next chance of rain and thunderstorms may emerge from this time next week.

Lets take a look


Rainfall Next 10 Days

Rainfall is heavy and more extensive over the northern and western districts with the low pressure system where part of the rainfall may evade the southern Agricultural areas. Now I am not willing to reduce rainfall yet for southern and southeast areas just yet but be aware that there could be a very tight rainfall gradient skirting through the Ag Areas during the coming days. The rainfall eases during Friday as the low moves away but showery weather over the southeast could be heavy and wintry at times with a front before clearance next week. The next trough looks set to develop from mid next week with further showers and storms developing over the northwest.

Agricultural Areas

Southeast Districts

Thunderstorm Forecast Wednesday

Scattered to numerous showers and storms about tonight will continue overnight and extend further east through northern areas. The thunderstorms coverage will increase further again during Wednesday with severe storms likely over the northern and western areas ahead and with a low pressure system. Once the low moves east of your region, the weather turns sharply stable.

Flash Flood Risk Wednesday

Heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding continues tonight and during Wednesday with thunderstorms, but also expected with the passage of a low pressure system over the West Coast and Eyre Peninsula later tomorrow and extending east through the Mid North and Flinders during Thursday. Some areas could record over 70mm of rainfall. How far south the risk does come is determined by the upper level winds and this won't be known until it is underway.

Damaging Winds Risk Wednesday

Damaging winds are likely to develop with a deep low emerging from WA but also with thunderstorms over the west and northern areas of the state, this may extend towards the EP during the late afternoon or evening.

Riverine Flood Risk This Week.

The riverine flood risk up north is high through this period with the water expected to hit the salt pans and outback lakes later this week into later this month, starting the process of flooding through the warm season. This is not a surprise given the guidance in previous months.

DATA - Refer to Video For the Analysis

00Z Euro Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 10 Days

The pressure pattern is similar to GFS and introduces the humid air following the cold drier snap over the southeast this weekend, across the nation much more quickly now and this time next week I suspect we are already talking about rain and thunderstorms once again. I have been warning of this lack of a break in rainfall for a while now and it appears that idea is on the table.

00z Euro Precipitable Water Anomalies - Next 10 Days

Significant PW Anomalies continue ahead of a nice pop of drier air working through this weekend into next week, but as mentioned, note the moisture surging from the Indian Ocean and then through the easterly wind shift over the tropics which shift south through the nation.

00z Euro Precipitable Water Anomalies - Next 10 Days

Note the very high PW values over the nation's north and east. I want to point out there is a very high region of PW that comes down with the low pressure system between Wagga and Canberra which could trigger torrential rainfall Friday and serious flash flooding there as well as most of QLD and the outback

00z Euro Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 days More can be found in the video

00z GFS Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 days

More can be found in the video

A full wrap of the rainfall and flood potential after 9pm.

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