SA - SETTLED WEEKEND OF WEATHER AND WARMING UP. UNSETTLED WEATHER DEVELOPS NEXT WEEK FROM THE NORTH

The humidity and unsettled weather is not too far away during the outlook period, but for now, the coming few days are looking pretty good with high pressure over much of the state and dry air under that high, clear skies and pleasant conditions can be expected.


The weather turns warmer and much more humid during Monday over the north and that starts to move south into central areas by Tuesday and statewide, Wednesday looks unsettled with a deep trough tapping into that moisture to produce scattered showers and thunderstorms.


The unsettled weather may contract east and north during later next week but returns possibly by the following weekend.


The outlook looks unsettled with a lot of humidity sweeping through the region.


Lets take a look

FORECAST

Rainfall Next 10 days

Not much expected from now until mid next week, with the next batch of showers and thunderstorms skirting the northern border on Monday. The storms then turn south and move into the NW Pastoral Districts on Tuesday and then further southeast during Wednesday ahead of a trough. Storms could be strong to severe and will have more to say on that during Sunday. The humid and unsettled weather continues to lay across northern and eastern areas right through next week into the following weekend.

DATA - Refer to video for more details.

GFS 00z - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 16 days

GFS 00z - Precipitable Water Anomalies - Next 16 days

GFS 00z - Precipitable Water Values - Next 16 days

Note the tropical intrusion of moisture (the yellow and red shadings) dislodging from the tropics and through the Indian Ocean.

GFS 00z - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 16 days

The numbers will chop and change from run to run.

CMC 00z - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 15 days

A very wet look for the coming 2 weeks, this is near record rainfall if it falls in the coming 2 weeks for parts of the outback

CFS 00z - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 6 Weeks

Wetter still in the data sets tonight.

I will be having tomorrow off to deal with a few other projects, and back on Sunday with more updates on the short and medium term and a look at Summer 2021/22.

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