* I will be rebooting the system this evening and doing back of house work ahead of details on the Apple App launch tomorrow. Details to come on that - my next update here from 7am EDT. *

The heat is approaching, and for those hanging out for Summer weather, well your time is coming and it will be a chance to string at least some Summer days together. Dry heat developing through the weekend will be interrupted over southern areas by a weak front, however northern areas will continue to bake.

It is not until next week that we see the heat ramp up as the pool of hot air over the western interior is dislodged and propelled southeast through the nation as a long wave trough approaches WA.

Next week looks dry and hot with the chance of some areas getting into the mid 40s up north and near 40C in the south. A cooler change will approach from later next week if not the following weekend and that may produce a few thunderstorms and showers. That offer the next chance of rainfall across the state.

Lets take a look


Rainfall Next 10 Days

Not a lot. It is look lean for a while which is normal for this time of year in the semi arid state. Summer temperatures coupled with dry air will see the remaining moisture disappear through much of the state. The next chance of thunderstorms may arrive from about 9-10 days from now.

00Z GFS -Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 16 Days

Significant rainfall is expected to unfold over the southeast of the nation during the course of the next 2-3 days with a deepening upper level low passing through NSW and deepening off the east coast. This will cause some flood risks down through the southeast of NSW and eastern VIC. The severe storm threat continues for the next 2 days over eastern NSW and QLD before the weather eases over the weekend. The heat is on next week with a significant pool of heat heading southeast and east from the northwest of the nation. So more summer like conditions expected for southern Australia. The north of the nation remains in routine weather leading to prolonged build up conditions. The west will turn cooler, which will be welcome after the heatwave this week. The cooler weather enhanced by a cold front developing next week for the SWLD. Watching that fast flow pattern in the medium term that will send a nasty heatwave across the nation and then the rain returns with a very deep moisture supply ahead of Christmas as you can see here and in the PW values below.

00Z GFS - Precipitable Water Values - Next 16 Days

We see a nice tongue of drier air coming through the east and south of the nation from next week, the high humidity will be replaced with a decent period of drier and more stable air which will be welcome for many of you who have been swimming in recent weeks. The dry air also extends back to WA with cooler conditions in a fresh westerly wind regime through much of next week. The tropics is where you should find the persistent moisture during this time of year and that is where it will be from about early next week with the showers and storms thinning out even up there, thanks to high pressure aloft. But watch that moisture return and combine with the high heat, a very robust atmosphere is being progged on the medium term portion of the outlook, something that I will monitor in the days ahead.

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 16 Days

More can be found in the video above.

A closer look in - rainfall will be lean for a while, so it is a benign and boring forecast for a little bit. Will be very hot next week.

More to come from 7am EDT.

17 views0 comments