SA - SETTLED FOR THE COMING WEEK WITH NO CHANGE TO THE GUIDANCE.

No change from yesterday in terms of the high pressure moving on by or weakening during the next week, so the pattern therefore looks stable and mild to warm for the south tending hot over the northern inland with persistent above average temperatures.


There is some weak signals for the moisture that will build over northwest WA through the back half of next week could make it down into the far northwest of the state.


But with the remains of Charlotte expected to move west and away from the WA coast and weaken and the high to strengthen over SA, rainfall now is unlikely to sweep into the far west, cutting off any rainfall chances of any note impacting the state through this period.


Lets take a look

FORECAST

Rainfall Next 10 Days

Rainfall is forecast to remain lean and non existent for much of the state for much of this period. As per Victoria and southeast and eastern inland, the weather is forecast to be dry for lengthy periods at this time of year, so while not unusual, off the back of a dry Summer for some parts, it hurts a little more. So for now light falls possible for the southeast and southern coastline with the high recentrering next week and that may open the door to a weak front passing through the southeast. Otherwise there is not much moisture, cloud or rainfall expected at this time.

Temperature Anomalies - Next 10 Days

Temperatures will remain above average for the coming 10 days for inland areas under the ridge, with some moderation of the temperatures for the south expected in about a week. But overall most areas should see a warmer week.

DATA - Refer to the video for further information and it is critical to keep check of the data sets to understand where the next major weather events are emerging from outside of this period. It may be quiet now but I am all about preparation and ensuring that information is shared with you as soon as it is available.


00Z GFS - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 2 Weeks

The latest GFS is now moving more into line with the Euro and we are starting to see the models converge on the idea of where the driest weather will be and where the heaviest of rainfall and severe weather potential will be. As pointed out in the video, the west, north and east of the nation carry the higher risk of seeing widespread rainfall with above average rainfall possible. Over the east, the rainfall could lead to flooding along the NSW coast. Over the northern tropics, watching the emergence of the tropical low over the weekend and what that does next week, though the latest GFS is in line with the Euro and produces a system that deepens into a cyclone near to the north of the NT and then heads west bound. That will be a feature to watch. And in the west, the remains of Charlotte still hard to pin down but there is now growing evidence that the heavier rainfall for the west may actually come next week with a deeper moisture developing offshore the northwest of the nation being drawn southeast in the wake of Charlotte. If you are in the southern NT, SA, western and northern VIC, southern and western NSW and western QLD., it will be likely dry for a while.

00Z GFS - Precipitable Water Values - Next 2 Weeks

The moisture distribution is unchanged from this morning where we see the moisture damming over the north and east in the current climate drivers allowing these areas to remain humid and the threat of above average rainfall to develop remaining also quite high. The west seeing constant moisture streaming in from the Indian Ocean via the jet stream. Also the moisture over the east coast will move into an upper low which will trigger severe storms in the short term, this likely to move out next week. Dry air stays put over the remainder of the central and southern/southeast inland for the next week with very little change expected to this.

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to the video for more context and analysis

00Z CMC - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to the video for more context and analysis

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 2 Weeks

Refer to the video for more context and analysis

A closer look in - this forecast is very low confidence into the medium term and I want to stress that what the models are expressing at the moment is more high amplitude synoptic patterns associated with large thermal gradients and deep moisture content. This is what causes havoc on the models so watch closely in the coming days.

More coming up from 9pm EDT with a look at the models and rainfall, I will only share information that is in reasonable agreement as too much is too confusing and I only want to share what is plausible at this time, so stay tuned for that.


4 views0 comments