SA - SETTLED FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK. HOTTER THIS WEEKEND AHEAD OF THUNDERY WEATHER OVER THE EAST.

The week overall, fairly settled as mentioned and that persistent ridge to the south keeping the weather very much benign for now, through the working week, across the weekend and into early next week.


Early next week there is a trough that will come out of WA and this system will slow down and begin to interact with another trough that will form over NSW and possibly the far east this weekend triggering a few storms. Once the new trough from WA merges with the trough in the east, we could see light and patchy rainfall developing this time next week, becoming more widespread in the east next week before more clearer weather returns as another high comes in.


It is March and this weather is fairly typical for this time of year. No strong signals for a pattern shift leading to widespread rainfall just yet.


Lets take a look

FORECAST

Rainfall Next 10 Days

Rainfall is forecast to remain fairly non existent for the state with a dry work week and weekend coming up. There may be a few thundery showers that could form in the far east this weekend and into early next week with a developing trough over the NSW border but I suspect most of that will fall in the east. A new trough emerging from the west with a weakening cold front could lead to a cloud band forming early next week with patchy rain and a thunderstorm moving east. This activity looks to become more widespread through NSW and VIC at this time next week, so the further east you go, the more widespread the rainfall may be. But will watch trends.

Thunderstorm Forecast Tuesday

Thunderstorms with a trough passing north through NSW may clip the very far northeast tomorrow afternoon but the bulk of the rainfall will be found in NSW and QLD.

DATA - Refer to video for more details and model analysis and context behind the forecasts above.


00Z GFS - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 2 Weeks

The severe weather risks for the east should begin to ease on Tuesday as the low pressure system over the Tasman deepens into a surface low and moves east. The winds and showers persisting through the week but the rainfall intensity coming down. Storms will contract into QLD through this week with the risk of severe thunderstorms still relatively elevated. Across the remainder of the nation it is looking fairly benign with only a handful of showers and storms over in WA along the central and northwest coast. The weather over the tropics seasonal. Temperature wise, hot to very hot in the west, grading to warm to hot in SA but milder along the coast and into the southeast and eastern inland where conditions will remain below average over the east coast. Hot and very humid for the north with routine showers and storms about.

00Z GFS - Precipitable Water Values - Next 2 Weeks

Moisture values are coming down for parts of the eastern and southeast inland which has been well documented here for a while. Moisture will increase over northern and western Australia with moisture being pulled in from the jet stream which is running over the Indian Ocean. The moisture over NSW will contract further east and northeast into QLD and that is where it should stay until it is reintroduced into inland QLD and NSW this weekend and into next week. Moisture from the west will spread through SA and into the southeast inland and eastern inland next week. That will see rainfall chances come back up.

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to video for more on the rainfall accumulation and model assessment.

00Z CMC - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to video for more on the rainfall accumulation and model assessment.

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 2 Weeks

Refer to video for more on the rainfall accumulation and model assessment.

A closer look in - refer to the video for my analysis on the state based look. There may be some agencies and ideas on the board that are fixed on statistics about where places will be dry and others not so dry, the overall trend is for low confidence forecasting until we get the upper low off the board in the east.

More coming up from 8am EDT tomorrow. I will resume the models and rainfall outlooks from tomorrow night once we lose the east coast low event and see what we are looking for in the medium term. I will have the 6 week climate outlook as well.

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