SA - SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS CLEARING THURSDAY.

The air is expected to warm from Thursday, meaning the instability triggering the showers and thundertorms today, will begin to move on by. The weather over the northern and western parts of the state expected to clear and remain seasonal in a southwest to northwest flow.


Some of the storms today dropping a months worth of rainfall in a sitting for parts of the hills but other areas getting nothing. That is storm lotto and no one can tell you where these storms will form ahead of time in a warm unstable airmass.


Over the weekend a front from WA is expected to race across to be near Ceduna by Saturday, but begin to slide southeast, coming up against a block over the Tasman Sea, thus seeing rainfall moving away from the state, but parts of the Eyre Peninsula could pick up some showery periods during Sunday as the front slides away to the southeast states.


The weather is expected to remain breezy and showery over the southeast districts to kick off next week with light falls mainly.


Lets take a look

Rainfall for the next 10 days

The rainfall this afternoon which has been hit and miss, some areas getting a deluge, some areas nothing, will clear off. The weather turning more stable during Thursday with only a few showers about the southeast regions. Then during the weekend we have a weakening cold front that is expected to bring showers to the southern coastal areas, especially the Eyre Peninsula and the Southeast Districts, before conditions again clear through early next week. The weather is anticipated to turn warmer and drier mid next week ahead of another rainfall event looming at the end of the run.

DATA


Euro 00z - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 10 days

Scattered showers and thunderstorms ongoing for the next 3 days with areas of rain as well with moderate falls. Just wet weather with increased risk of flooding. The west remains wet and stormy with two troughs in the coming days. The north is looking humid with a few showers and storms over the northern Top End most days this week coming. Remain weather aware across areas over the east. More rainfall is possible next week with a series of fronts and troughs but the confidence is fairly low at this time, but there is no excessively hot or cold weather, no severe weather threats nationwide beyond the events of this week.

Euro 00z - Precipitable Water Anomalies - Next 10 days

PW anomalies running high hence the significant coverage of rainfall and storms this morning throughout the south and east with warmer overnights and a humid feel to the air. This still expected to linger until the weekend. Another burst of moisture coming through the southwest of the nation with storms forecast and soupy weather over the north with PW values increasing to above average, leading to early build up. The moisture recycles next week through the interior with scattered showers and thunderstorms possible over interior parts which will then be drifting east. Some chance of rainfall returning beyond this outlook to the eastern and southeast inland and the tropics tending more active.

Euro 00z - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 days

Rainfall unchanged from this morning, there is follow up potential next week which you find out more about in the video and in the medium term forecast package from this morning.

A closer look in

GFS 00Z - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 days

Find out more in the blog video at the top of the page.

I will be having the night off to recharge ahead of another big day tomorrow.

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