A noticeable shift in conditions today with the airmass becoming drier and colder with a southerly flow developing in the wake of a low which has brought moderate to heavy rainfall as forecast. The rainfall is in the process of contracting further east tonight and by morning should be in NSW and VIC.

Showers in southerly winds should follow but fine and partly cloudy weather extending through the remainder of the inland with below average temperatures continuing.

The weather will warm up next week as the high pressure moves closer and the southwest winds ease and tend more easterly.

Some hints of more humid air returning later next week which may introduce a few showers and thunderstorms back across the state.

Lets take a look


Rainfall Next 10 Days

The bulk of the rainfall has now moved onto the east with light showers to be the focus of precipitation over the southeast of the state with onshore winds. The showers may increase a little on Sunday morning with the passage of a cold front but the showers again largely confined to the southeast districts. Then we dry out statewide for early next week. The next chance of rainfall exists later next week with scattered showers and thunderstorms developing over inland areas of the NT and extending south into SA.

And for those in the southeast

DATA - Analysis can be found in the video at the top.

00z GFS - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 16 Days

Again focus shifts to the next round of weather after the dry cooler spell across much of the nation, the question will be, do we have repeat systems coming through the nation from a week's time?

00z GFS - Precipitable Water Anomalies - Next 16 Days

The drier air is sweeping out the tropical moisture in the coming 36hrs with conditions turning much more settled across much of the inland, but note in the medium term, the moisture cycle starts again, and continues to build up throughout the back half of the month, for those that don't want rain, this is not what you want to see.

00z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 16 Days

More details in the video

A closer look in - two rainfall events to come in the 2 weeks from today.

More details tonight from 9pm looking at the next batch of rainfall and humidity coming down the pipe for the end of the month.

43 views4 comments