SA - RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTRACTING EAST THURSDAY - DRY WEEKEND.

The significant rainfall continues to pound down through the Outback with flash flooding likely overnight and during Thursday morning as the low pressure system deepens and taps into the rich tropical moisture supply. The rain and thunderstorm activity will clear eastwards by Thursday afternoon as the low moves into NSW.


Drier air is being pulled north into the state on the western side of the low pressure and therefore rainfall is minimal from this evening through the weekend.


Now the weekend is dry and looking much warmer as upper heights come up and the air stabalises. The humidity however, will begin to creep back into eastern and northern districts as the troughs redevelop.


Lets take a look

FORECAST

Rainfall Next 10 Days

Rainfall is extensive and heavy over parts of the NE Pastoral District, the Mid North and Flinders, some of the Riverlands and Murraylands also expecting to see some locally heavy falls. The weather clearing east during Thursday with a few residual showers to follow. Friday through early next week dry with a gusty southeast flow and no real signal for rainfall until moisture creeps back in from the north and east mid next week. There is the chance of showers and thunderstorms redeveloping during the end of the outlook.

Thunderstorm Forecast Thursday

Thunderstorms are contracting east through the state and mainly into NSW by late morning. Thunderstorms this evening and during the early morning may produce falls of 50mm/hr so that could cause significant flash flooding through the outback. The air dries out and stabalises later tomorrow with the storm risk ending.

Flash Flood Risk Wednesday into Thursday

Flash flooding is a very high risk tonight as mentioned through the updates this morning and this continues overnight and into Thursday morning before the risk simmers down by afternoon and contracts into NSW. Standing water and roads cut may persist for some locations.

Riverine Flood Risk Next 4 Days

After this rain concludes, flooding will still persist over the eastern areas with communities possibly cut off for a period of time through the weekend.

DATA


00Z GFS- Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 16 Days

As you saw in the video with the GFS - there is good agreement across the board for the west to remain hot and dry and SA, once the low moves into NSW, will also turn dry through next week. The east and north continuing to see tropical rainfall, the wettest weather through NSW and QLD with renewed flooding. The rain eases across the weekend, though some modelling wants to keep the trough in place and spit the low off the coast, but one way or the other the lower confidence in forecasting is quite challenging to forecast, given the very soupy airmass that is in place and unable to exit, the rainfall could continue for some time to come beyond this severe weather event. So we must be prepared for that in the east and northeast.

00z GFS - Precipitable Water Values - Next 16Days

Very deep moisture profile to persist for a number of days, some respite for SA and VIC and possibly western and southern NSW through the weekend but the moisture comes right back to the southern and southeast areas of the nation. The west remains dry and hot with an easterly flow and seasonal weather for the tropics.

00z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 16 Days

More on this coming up at 9pm EDT.

A closer look in - it is a very concerning rainfall forecast for the southeast and east.

More on rainfall and the latest model data coming up after 9pm EDT. The Euro data is lagging tonight FYI.

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