SA - QUICK FOLLOW UP FOR SHORT TERM STORM RISK.

Very quickly, here is the divergence in the modelling relating to where the rainfall is likely to be over the coming days. There is poor agreement, but I am aligning myself with the Euro due to consistency of the data sets coming out. We will know more tomorrow as the upper air data gets sent back into the modelling overnight.


DATA SETS.


18Z ICON - Rainfall Next 5 Days

Amplifies the trough further to the west and northwest.

00Z GFS- Rainfall Next 5 Days

Amplifies the trough further offshore and the system is not as fully realised as the Euro so lighter falls likely.

00Z Euro- Rainfall Next 5 Days

Sharper trough running into the upper level moisture pouring into the SA from the northwest. Trough is sharp for about 12-24hrs before weakening, but places it smack over the Lower Eyre Peninsula, heavier rainfall north of the feature.

00Z Euro Control - Rainfall Next 5 Days

Similar to the deterministic above, but broader in the rainfall distribution.

00Z CMC - Rainfall Next 5 Days

Trough offshore and meets the moisture there, little rainfall making it over land.

So as you can see plenty of chopping and changing in the modelling but better guidance should arrive tomorrow as we get better real time data analysis fed into the modelling.

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