SA sits in the dud side of the system, with the timing of the front, screwing up the rainfall spread and intensity once again after what has been a very warm few days, many were hoping for a big drop, sadly not to be.

State of play and where and why the rainfall jumps many of the Ag areas.

Further east is where all the rainfall is likely to break out - however the yellow zone in eastern SA could see falls closer to 10mm. Falls of 20mm possible northeast of Moomba.

But how long are we staying dry for?

Details below

Rainfall for the next 10 days

The rainfall is expected to be light and patchy as the band of cloud moves into EP this evening and throughout the remainder of YP and Adelaide overnight and into Friday morning. The trough is expected to pass through during Friday morning over Adelaide, clearing the rain band east, however as the trough moves east into the deeper moisture moving south from QLD into eastern SA and then shifts into NSW and VIC, that is where you will see the showers and storms regenerate and then expand into productive rain areas. For us, we sit in dry colder air later tomorrow as a southerly moves through. Then high pressure will take control of the weather for much of next week. So not much rainfall expected for the coming week. There are signals for further rainfall to break out over the west and northwest, but I like to see one system move through totally, before responding to follow up rainfall, especially at this time of year where the model volatility is much more frequent.

Southeast SA

Tristate and NE NSW

Eastern Border SA/NSW/VIC

Yorke Peninsula

00z Euro Surface Pressure Pattern for the coming 10 days

The pattern in good agreement with GFS finally, with the passage of the front in a similar time scale through the coming 3 days over SA, then into VIC and NSW. The boundary that moves north through QLD and NT is also expected to dissipate with the weather drying out early next week through much of the nation under a high pressure system. The only difference in the short term is to watch if a low forms closer to the southeast coast of NSW/VIC during the weekend, as that could enhance rainfall over the southeast third of the nation. The last 2 systems, GFS has picked this ahead of Euro in the day prior to a system unfolding so will watch carefully. Otherwise the next system to watch later next week is an injection of moisture through the northern flank of westerly winds over the southern states which could trigger patchy areas of rainfall for southern parts of WA through VIC, heavy over TAS if this verifies. Fine and dry for much of the inland. The tropics will also see a nice dry out coming during early next week.

00z Euro Rainfall for the coming 10 days

Rainfall again heaviest the further east you go through the nation over the south, so areas of NSW and VIC will be most widespread and heavy through Friday into Saturday afternoon. We are left with the remains of the moisture that came through WA tonight and into tomorrow with showers and a few storms moving through overnight and into Friday morning, before the upper trough hits the deeper moisture and spawns more widespread rainfall further east. There could be showers lingering for southern and southeast areas over the weekend with colder unstable air, but the models a little split on rainfall coverage. Then dry for much of next week until next weekend.

Further west

00z Euro Precipitable Water Values next 10 days

You can see that moisture on track to merge over the eastern states bringing up to 1 months worth of rainfall to many areas, but the rainfall gradient is very tight in response to the timing of the front in relation to the moisture sweeping south. All of that sweeps out with a dry southwester through the weekend, and really next week the dry air under sinking air leads to clear skies and light winds for many areas. Then the weather turns warmer from the west with humidity increasing through the mid and upper levels associated with a series of troughs moving through the westerly wind regime to the south of the nation. And trade winds will pump moisture back into the tropics later next week after another dry surge works north.

00z Euro Simulated Satellite Imagery next 10 days

The latest satellite simulation poses interesting weather developing through southern and western parts of the nation later in the outlook post the large rainfall event this weekend.

I will have a model wrap for the rainfall event coming up after 9pm tonight. Make sure you catch up on that details.

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