High pressure over WA is ridging through inland parts of the state today, bringing a noticeable clearer day with lighter winds. The weather much more pleasant after a blustery few weeks.
Coastal areas will continue to receive low cloud and light showers and the low level moisture returns in the wake of the colder dry air that surged through yesterday. The flow out of the southwest will continue to keep the moisture over the coast until tomorrow, before the winds turn into the northwest.
This will start the clearance process for coastal areas, with the west coast and areas from the northern EP and YP seeing a brighter day Friday and then throughout from Saturday.
The warmer weather will develop Sunday as the flow turns more northerly over the state with bright sunny skies.
Next week we have a few fronts approaching the region, the impact of those at this stage likely to fall away to the southeast but it is a low confidence forecast and could easily change.
I will have more on that in the medium term forecasting package coming up later this morning.
12Z GFS Surface Pressure Pattern for the coming 16 days
Pattern is settling down for the coming week, we still have the colder weather over the southeast with an onshore flow through the southeast states. The weather will become drier over inland areas of NSW today with the showers contracting through VIC and coastal SA. The weather then becomes drier throughout the east for the good part of the next week with high pressure deflecting the frontal weather off to the southeast. Those fronts will bring the wet weather through WA from Saturday with some strong cold fronts coming through early next week with moderate falls. Clearly the wettest part of the nation will be the southwest of WA. The high will persist over the southeast Tasman Sea and finally send easterly winds back to the eastern seaboard, so showers developing for the QLD and NSW coasts with some moderate falls over QLD. The moisture will try to build up over inland areas. The moisture will build up over the northern tropics with humid weather increasing during the coming week.
12z GFS Rainfall for the coming 10 days
Drying out as expected for the southeast with the pattern settling. Perhaps one front next week might be able to bring a period of showery weather to the west coast and maybe over the southeast, but the bulk of the showers will be coastal leaving much of SA dry for the next 7-10 days.
12z GFS Precipitable Water Anomalies next 16 days
The PW values are drying out for the nation, with the elevated values of recent days being pushed north. The dry air should win out over the coming days with the next surge of deeper moisture reserved for WA where the bulk of the rainfall will be. Moisture will likely be building up via the easterly winds will produce coastal showers this morning. Otherwise it is all eyes on the medium term where moisture starts to increase dramatically mid month onwards. More on that later.
12z Euro Surface Pressure Pattern for the coming 10 days
The weather also settling down on the latest Euro. Residual showers over the southeast over the coming few days will be the last of the wet weather for the south until we get the next batch of cold fronts coming into WA. The east coast will see showers developing over the weekend into next week with light to moderate falls. Then curiously the Euro still wants to introduce a northwest cloud band over WA bringing up rainfall chances for inland areas from mid month, where the GFS does not see it. More on that later.
12z Euro Rainfall for the coming 10 days
Rainfall limited to coastal areas as the inland begins to dry out. The weather essentially dry for the next 10 days over most of the southern inland. Coastal areas will see the bulk of the showers and most of those will be light, moderate falls reserved for southeast SA and parts of VIC. Otherwise this is traditional for a transition period where a large part of the nation is dry under high pressure repositioning.
12z Euro Precipitable Water Values next 10 days
PW values continue to modify and trend dry over much of the southern parts of the nation which is to be expected as high pressure dominates. The weather is expected to continue in this manner until early next week. Areas to watch will be the northwest and west of the nation and along the east coast, to see how the moisture builds over the coming week.
Rainfall for the next 10 days
Rainfall clearly contracting to the coastal areas with the westerly winds turning into the northwest, so that will see the bulk of the wet weather confined to the southeast. The inland dry for now. However it is a low confidence forecast due to the moisture circulating around the northwest inland of the nation and that could be drawn southeast. So do not be surprised by the weekend if there is rainfall drawn in for inland areas for mid month.
More details to come on the medium term weather forecast later this morning.