The weather once again is floating all around the state as troughs on either side of the nation continue to pull moisture in and bring unsettled weather to many locations. But for the state, ridging should hold out most of the severe weather potential through the outlook period.

A trough from WA will move into SA during Monday and start to lose it's integrity, though some scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop with this feature along the western border.

From Tuesday the system moves into the Ag areas, but opens up as a broad trough, still enough instability and moisture to support scattered showers and thunderstorms. Some of those could be severe.

The trough moves on into VIC and NSW during Wednesday and from later this week the humidity will be flushed north and east of the state with rainfall clearing away and settled weather resuming with seasonal temperatures.

The weekend at this stage remaining dry under ridging.

Lets take a look


Rainfall Next 10 Days

Rainfall as mentioned above is mainly to the east and north of the state where the air aloft is more unstable and that is combining with deeper moisture profile to bring the excessive rainfall risks over NSW and QLD. For now the rainfall totals will be patchy and uneven in distribution with thunderstorms clearly providing the better chances of 25mm in some locations. The air dries out during the latter part of this week and continues dry through until early next week with ridging. The forecast confidence remains low on the forecast track of the mid week system so this forecast is likely to change.

Thunderstorm Forecast Monday

Thunderstorms are possible about the far west during the afternoon and evening but the main activity will stay back in WA where the trough is more amplified and moisture deeper.


00Z Euro - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 10 Days

The pattern remains dynamic and unstable and volatile for many regions over the coming 10 days. The forecast confidence therefore remains low with such a large amount of moisture, high degree of instability and low pressure also working through the moisture producing thunderstorms, the placement of the worst of the weather is hard to pin down. There is no doubt that the west will see conditions ease with that low pressure system lifting east into SA then into the eastern states, the rainfall and thunderstorms increasing over SA, VIC, NSW and QLD for the second half of this week. Where the confidence falls down is in who gets what and when. So that is going to be the frustrating part for many this week, with headers sitting still and a lot of water coming down in the east and potential for more. The northern tropics also looking unsettled with high levels of moisture and the return of colder air aloft, supporting showers and thunderstorms. There is a high chance that parts of NSW and southern QLD does not evade the moist air through this period meaning a wet start to December is likely. The west remaining hot in persistent easterly winds.

00Z Euro - Precipitable Water Values - Next 10 Days

Deep moisture still remains in place for much of this week leading to elevated rainfall chances for many. But once we get into the latter part of this week, SA and VIC should return back into dry air and this will support a few days of dry settled skies with southeast winds. Can the humidity be swept out of NSW and QLD? Not so sure on that, which may pose a problem for those needing dry clearer days of weather. It is not looking as promising in these regions, especially the further north and east you go. WA dries out from Tuesday.

00Z Euro - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to video for more details and to the post after 9pm EDT.

00Z Euro - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 16 Days

Refer to video for more details and to the post after 9pm EDT.

More on the rainfall after 9pm EDT.

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