SA - HUMID WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE NORTH AND EASTERN AREAS - COOLER CHANGE SOUTH.

The thundery weather continues to bring heavy rainfall and areas of flash flooding over northern and eastern areas of the state with the same trough that brought the flooding over last weekend, slowly moving eastwards over the coming 24 hours. The trough will be the focus of the thunderstorms once again on Friday and that looks to be mainly north and east of Adelaide.


For the weekend, the weather largely similar, with thundery weather over the north and far northeast with a trough and the monsoonal moisture drifting over the state once again. It will stop short of coming into the Ag Areas at this time.


However, a trough passing through the southeast during Monday or Tuesday may pull some of that moisture southeast into the feature, bringing another chance of showers and storms across the state with moderate to heavy falls before we get a refreshing and stronger, deeper southerly flow which will kick out the humidity northwards.


The weather from mid next week for the state, much quieter.


Lets take a look

FORECAST

Rainfall Next 10 Days

Rainfall remains very much a hit and miss event with thunderstorms in the mix. As we saw over the state last night, some areas being clobbered and others not seeing a great deal. That will continue over the north and the northeast this weekend while the south remains dry and milder with less humidity. Next week, another trough will move through the south of the state and this could bring the moisture from northern parts of the state south and east into the Agricultural Areas with another round of showers and storms. Possibly heavy rainfall may appear into the early part of next week. Then we turn dry for the back half of next week with a new high ridging in.

Thunderstorm Forecast Friday

Thunderstorms will continue for parts of the north and east of the state during Friday with heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding the main concern once again given the very moist airmass aloft. The trough will begin to move further eastwards and northwards as well, taking the unsettled weather with it out of the south.

Flash Flood Risk Friday

A very high risk of flash flooding is still possible tonight and again during Friday afternoon with a trough moving through. Rainfall rates could see flash flooding occur quite rapidly given that the ground is rather saturated. The risk will be mainly north and east of the Ag Areas at this time, but stay close to the radar.

DATA - Refer to the short and medium term break down in the video with further details for your part of the world. Medium term off the GFS is very low confidence


00Z GFS - Surface Pressure and Rainfall Distribution - Next 16 Days

As per the video - not much change in the short term with the monsoon and tropical lows over the north driving the heavy rainfall. Trough slowly moving east through the southeast finally bringing the severe weather risks into the eastern inland this weekend, and clearing to southeast of the very unstable weather. The tropical low over the northwest is something to watch as well which may bring heavy flooding rainfall over the weekend. It is the medium term that offers no help to figuring out the rainfall potential nationally. The guidance is very poor and remains low confidence. More in the models and rainfall analysis this evening.

00Z GFS - Precipitable Water Values - Next 16 Days

The very deep moisture profile is still with us for a number of days over much of the south but you will find that retreats slowly through the outlook period back to northern and eastern Australia as new high pressure comes in. Once again the signals from the models are for the monsoon to remain in place over northern Australia. What the GFS does with that information is to create tropical lows, which for the most part are bogus, but what that tells me is that the tropical weather is expected to be dominated by the monsoon trough. Where that moisture goes remains to be seen. So stay tuned.

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to video for further information

00Z CMC- Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to video for further information

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 16 Days

Refer to video for further information

A closer look in - hit and miss storms will result in uneven distribution of rainfall. The southeast will turn drier but the east coast will turn wetter next week.

A detailed look at all things rainfall and the model data tonight, people getting more itchy about the seeding season ahead, it will be here before you know it!

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