SA - HOT AND HUMID WEATHER CONTINUES WITH THE MAIN RAINFALL EAST OF US. COOLER WEATHER THIS WEEKEND

It is the state that cannot buy a drop of rainfall and it will continue for much of the outlook period. A strong high situated over the southwest of the nation is ridging through the Bight and is acting to deflect moisture north and east of the state for the most part with easterly winds and subsiding air.


Where we have seen rainfall is in the very far east and southeast where a troughs that form over us, born out of the high heat, dig into that moisture leading to the severe weather events over eastern Australia.


But for now, the state remains hot and very humid, those humid conditions trapped under the ridge will be swept out by Friday afternoon as a southerly flow begins to move through coastal areas and then into the inland by the weekend.


Settled weather away from the far east this week and through to next week, keeping the forecast dry for many.


Keep watch on the weather further towards the north as moisture from the remains of Tiffany start to drift south next week, could this open the door for rainfall chances coming up?

FORECAST

Rainfall Next 10 Days

Rainfall is hard to find through much of the state and with only isolated showers and thunderstorms possible with a trough deepening over the southeast and east tomorrow and Thursday, really the outlook is relatively dry for the coming week apart from those lucky few who get a storm. Moisture from the tropical feature over the NT may begin to sweep further south later next week but until then, no real sign of any organised rainfall event for the state at present.

Thunderstorm Forecast Wednesday

Thunderstorms are likely to develop near and to the east of Adelaide during the afternoon and evening, and as mentioned throughout the weekend gone, there may be a few gusty and heavier thunderstorms over the Riverlands, Murrylands and points towards the Mallee so stay weather aware. Some places could get 25mm in quick time.

Flash Flood Risk Wednesday

A low risk of flash flooding on Wednesday but some of the bigger storms along the eastern border could surprise with heavy rainfall in quick time given the high levels of moisture available.

Damaging Winds Wednesday

Damaging winds are possible with more organised severe weather over the far east during the afternoon and evening and more likely up over the far northeast.

Severe Weather Watch - Thursday to Saturday

The risk of severe weather for SA is mainly for the trough deepening on Thursday but as you can see it contracts east, finds the moisture and an outbreak occurs in VIC and NSW.

DATA - More information can be found in the video where I use CMC this evening.


00Z GFS - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 16 Days

GFS is on drugs tonight. There is no other way of putting it. So I want you to use other agencies until it settles down. It is an outlier. The moisture from the tropics likely stays in place until next week before we see any evidence across the board of that moisture heading south and east across the country. Otherwise we have got a major flood event for the NT over the next week. Severe storm outbreak later this week into the weekend for the southeast and east and dry boring predictable weather for SA and WA. That is probably the easy part of the forecast right now. Finally, note the tropical systems into the medium term, that expresses to me that the tropics remain active for the remainder of the month, not that cyclones are hitting WA in the medium term.

00Z GFS - Precipitable Water Values - Next 16 Days

Where the tropical system goes, so to does the rainfall opportunities up north. The moisture from this system will be distributed across the country but exactly where remains to be seen. But here is an example of what happens when that moisture does get drawn across the country. It is unlikely to occur but a good example non the less.

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to video for more information

00Z CMC - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to video for more information

A closer look in with CMC over the next 10 days

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 16 Days

Refer to video for more information

More weather coming up this evening with a look at all things models and rainfall as we eye off the tropics and see how that large flood event will impact areas further south and east.




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